Flash Flood Warning 125, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
259 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE STRONG WEDGE OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...DEW POINTS ARE REFUSING TO RISE. MOST DEW POINTS
HAVE ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 50S SO THE AIR IS REMAINING FAIRLY
STABLE. THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH
WILL SERIOUSLY MITIGATE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. I STILL
THINK WITH THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
LESS THAN AN HOUR BEFORE IT GETS INTO THE STATE...DEW POINTS IN
MARENGO AND SUMTER COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S. IF THIS DOES
HAPPEN...THESE COUNTIES AND THE IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREA COULD
SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUST OR TWO.

THE BIGGER THREAT THAT REMAINS IS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS OVER
THE STATE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE BEING SEEN ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...WITH SOME SUBSIDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THIS ADVISORY
THROUGH 3 AM CST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED PAST MIDNIGHT. CHECK OUT HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE LATEST ON BOTH OF THESE THREATS.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY TONIGHT OF A COUPLE OF SNOW FLURRIES IN
OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WITH SOME TRAILING MOISTURE...
TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE SHOULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO EEK OUT
A FLURRY OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD BE OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY THE NOON HOUR ON CHRISTMAS DAY...AND WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME
SUN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY...THE GFS HAS INTRODUCED A UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF FOR SUNDAY.  I
HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
BUT I DON'T EXPECT MUCH OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 20S AREA
WIDE.

THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONTINUITY WHEN IT COMES TO
THE SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  GFS SPITS OUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...BUT KEEPS MOST OF IT SOUTH OF THE AREA.  EURO SPINS UP A
SURFACE LOW BUT IS PRETTY DRY.

27

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA.  AS A RESULT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...DECREASING A BIT TOMORROW AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER NORTH...BUT REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY.

SPEEDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THROUGH 3 AM WITH
GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SHIFTING WESTERLY AS IT PASSES.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TCL AROUND 09Z...EET/BMX BY 11Z AND
ANB/MGM AND TOI BY 13Z.  MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY TOMORROW...PREVAILING FROM THE
WEST.  CEILINGS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5000 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LLWS IS A CONCERN...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE SPEEDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REALIZED.

12/SIRMON

&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH 3 AM TONIGHT.

&&

27/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
548 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-260000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
548 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH. GUSTS COULD REACH 50 MPH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH 3 AM...SO THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

12/SIRMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
614 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TUSCALOOSA              33.24N 87.54W
12/24/2009                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CHRISTMAS TREE IN FRONT OF THE TUSCALOOSA COUNTY
            COURTHOUSE HAS REPORTEDLY BLOWN DOWN. 56 MPH WIND GUST
            RECORDED FROM SKYCAM ON TOP OF THE BUILDING.

&&

GGOGGINS