Flash Flood Warning 124, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WGUS74 KBMX 181434
FFSBMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
834 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

ALC063-065-091-119-181444-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-091218T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARENGO AL-SUMTER AL-HALE AL-GREENE AL-
834 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN GREENE...
WESTERN HALE...SUMTER AND NORTHERN MARENGO COUNTIES...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3287 8830 3284 8763 3233 8763 3231 8836

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
513 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...

GULF LOW CURRENTLY TRUCKING NEWD ACROSS NRN GULF JUST S OF MOUTH
OF MS RVR...MS/AL COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO FL/GA DURING
THE DAY TODAY AND ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING ACROSS C
AL...THEN TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW MOVES
OUT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO MOST OF THE CWA TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WITH TIGHT
GRADIENTS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AREA WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN C AL
COUNTIES...CLOSER TO LOW FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED WIND
ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. STILL NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE
MUCH OF A FACTOR AS THE LOW SHOULD STAY TO THE S...BUT INSTEAD A
COLD RAIN EVENT.

FRI NT WILL BE COOLER WITH NW FLOW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS...WITH ONLY
A CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN NE SECTIONS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
BECOME LIMITED AT THIS TIME. MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DIG AND MOVE
ACROSS THE C/NE U.S. TODAY INTO SAT...BRINGING A COUPLE OF
IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT/SAT NT. AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED SAT/SAT NT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES FOR SAT
NT BEFORE OUR UPPER SYSTEM COMPLETELY PULLS OUT TO OUR NE. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. IF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION
FALLS IT SHOULDNT BE A HAZARD OR MEASURABLE. LOOKING AT A BREAK
FOR SUN THRU TUE AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR MOVES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. AS WE MOVE INTO MID WEEK LOOKING
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO WEAKEN AND OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS AL. MODELS ARE WARMER FOR MID WEEK PRECIPITATION SO
LESS LIKELY FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MORE LIKELY FOR STORMS. ONLY
HAVE RAIN IN AS FOR NOW...MAY NEED TO ADD TS TO GRIDS AS WE GET
CLOSER SINCE LOW MAY TRACK FURTHER ACROSS AREA. POST FRONTAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND OUR EXTENDED TOWARD CHRISTMAS (CHRISTMAS
EVE)...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS MODELS TEND TO BE GENEROUS WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE EXTENDED THEN TAKE IT AWAY. SO NOT
COUNTING ANY FLAKES TILL SOME I CAN SEE A LITTLE CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE GULF LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT
BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.  CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED TO BETWEEN 5000 AND
7000 FEET FOR THE NORTHERN TAFS AND 2500 TO 3500 FOR THE SOUTHERN
TAFS. RAIN IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS ALL OF THE SITES...WITH
STILL MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS AT KTOI.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST...RAINFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. AS FOR VISIBILITIES...WILL LIKELY STAY AT MVFR AT ALL
SITES WITH A FEW HOURS AFTER 10Z SOUTH AND 12Z NORTH IN WHICH VIS
MAY DROP TO IFR WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS.

CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...TO NEAR 1500 FEET BY 12Z OR
13Z AT KANB...KTCL...KEET...AND KBMX.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT TOI...AND MGM.  IFR VISIBILITY IS
ALSO EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE LOW AT MGM AND TOI AFTER 08Z...
CONTINUING THROUGH 17 TO 18Z DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL. SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z AT ALL SITES AS THE RAIN BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...SHIFTING FROM THE EAST
TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 12Z AT MGM AND TOI...2 TO 5 KNOTS LOWER ELSEWHERE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  34  44  29  45 / 100  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    47  34  45  28  46 / 100  20  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  47  34  47  29  47 / 100  20  20  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  36  48  30  50 /  90  10  10  10   0
CALERA      48  35  47  30  48 / 100  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      46  34  47  29  49 / 100  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  51  38  50  30  52 / 100  10  10  10   0
TROY        51  37  50  29  52 / 100  10  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

08/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-181230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
930 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE SAME AREA THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LINDEN...TO PRATTVILLE...TO
OPELIKA...AND IS VALID FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL NOON ON FRIDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH
WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SELMA...TO
BIRMINGHAM...TO HEFLIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL END BY NOON AS THE RAIN MASS PUSHES
EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA. THE WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

AREA RIVERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SWOLLEN INTO THE WEEKEND AND SOME
RIVER STAGES WILL REMAIN ABOVE ACTION STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

75