Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS PARKED FROM SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AN EXTENDED LINE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS SET UP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
RECEIVED A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR WITH ADDITIONAL INCHES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE 20 HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TOWARD SUNSET..THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A LOW
PRESSURE SURFACE WAVE WILL SHIFT FROM WEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
WEST ALABAMA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND GREAT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 20 NORTHWARD.
THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN THESE AREAS
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

EVENTUALLY...A KICKER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EVERYTHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING MGM AND TOI
EARLY MORNING.

OVERALL...A PROLONGED TIME FRAME WHERE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. REMAIN ALERT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TAKE ACTION
IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS PERIODS WEATHER IS DOMINATED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE PASSING OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...THEY ALL AGREE ON FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE AND ENOUGH QPF TO WARRANT A THREAT OF MEASURABLE SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. MAIN QUESTION IS THE QPF. IM PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT IS GOING TO SNOW BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM AND THE INITIAL SNOWFALL SHOULD MELT. HOWEVER...THIS EVENT
COULD LAST UP TO 6 HOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS AND EVENTUALLY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DUE TO THE WIDE RANGING QPF FORECASTS BY GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER
TOTAL AND A WATCH OR WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY SUNDAY WILL BE COLD AND BREEZY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR FOR A MODEST WARM UP ON MONDAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE TAFS SHORT AND SIMPLE AS THE BASIC SCENARIO WILL HAVE A
SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME AMENDMENTS IN THE SHORT TERM. BASICALLY
BE AWARE OF MANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TCL, BHM, EET AND ANB.

FOR MGM AND TOI...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  51  54  33  42 / 100  90  70  80  30
ANNISTON    68  54  63  36  42 / 100 100  70  80  40
BIRMINGHAM  67  55  59  31  44 / 100 100  70  80  30
TUSCALOOSA  71  56  57  32  47 / 100  90  60  80  10
CALERA      69  56  60  35  45 / 100 100  70  80  30
AUBURN      67  56  67  34  44 /  70  80  80  60  50
MONTGOMERY  73  60  67  38  49 /  70  70  70  60  20
TROY        70  60  70  37  49 /  50  60  80  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 6 PM.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR MARION-
LAMAR- FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE- PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY- RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB- HILTON-COOSA-
TALLAPOOSA- CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-ELMORE.

&&

88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-281230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...THE STORMS WILL RE-INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREATS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE BEST ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT AREAS SOUTH TO NEAR MONTGOMERY
MAY SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
FEW LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF RAIN...WITH RAIN
TOTALS BY SATURDAY MORNING OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ON OPEN
WATERWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 AND
HIGHWAY 80 WILL HAVE THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. AN INCREASED THREAT NORTHWARD WILL BE SOLELY
DEPENDANT ON THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON SATURDAY...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
FEW WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS
THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY THROUGH SATURDAY AT NOON.

75/LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

ALZ023-032-034-035-271900-
BIBB-CHILTON-HALE-TUSCALOOSA-
1218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BIBB...CHILTON...HALE AND TUSCALOOSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CST...

AT 1213 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DEERLICK CREEK CAMPGROUNDS
TO KNOXVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF HOLT TO
15 MILES NORTHEAST OF EUTAW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  COTTONDALE.
  MOUNDVILLE AIRPORT.
  COALING.
  VANCE.
  WOODSTOCK JUNCTION.
  WEST BLOCTON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
101 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TUSCALOOSA              33.24N 87.54W
02/27/2009                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE ON UNIVERSITY OF
            ALABAMA CAMPUS.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
102 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

ALZ025-034-035-271945-
BIBB-CHILTON-SHELBY-
102 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BIBB...CHILTON AND SHELBY COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 PM CST...

AT 1258 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TANNEHILL IRONWORKS STATE PARK TO EOLINE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTEVALLO TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRENT...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MARVEL.
  MAYLENE.
  AMERICAN VILLAGE.
  WILTON.
  CALERA.
  MINOOKA PARK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
158 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             SAFFORD                 32.29N 87.37W
02/27/2009  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             AL   POST OFFICE

&&

MBAER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
216 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             PINE LEVEL              32.07N 86.06W
02/27/2009  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENT
            AT JUNCTION OF I-65 AND US HWY 31.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W HUBBERTVILLE        33.83N 87.81W
02/27/2009                   FAYETTE            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 171 NEAR HARBIN ROAD.

&&

KSUMRALL