Flash Flood Warning 116, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
340 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

IDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS SHE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE ALABAMA GULF COAST. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
IDA MAKES LANDFALL AND THEN MAKES A TURN TOWARD THE EAST LATER
TODAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ON AREA ROADWAYS AS WELL
AS RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP
TO KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
30-35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS INSTABILITIES ARE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IDA MOVES INTO GEORGIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE BACK IN OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE MID 70S BY THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TS IDA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHOW HER EFFECTS ACROSS ALABAMA...AS
ALL OF THE CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF SITES ARE NOW SEEING AT LEAST -RA.
RAINFALL INTENSITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH STRONGER NE WIND GUSTS.  MGM/TOI ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PUSHES
NORTHWARD.  BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  CIGS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO FALL AS MVFR
CIGS HAVE STARTED AT MGM AND TOI.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CIGS FALL TO IFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT WILL
RUN WITH MVFR FOR NOW.

THE REMAINING SITES...TCL/EET/BHM/ANB...WILL HAVE TO WAIT A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS.  WIND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS SHOULD START FOR ALL 4 SITES AFTER 09Z...WHICH
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.  CIGS AND VIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR STATUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF TS IDA.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  49  64  46  64 / 100  60  10   0   0
ANNISTON    64  50  64  45  64 / 100  90  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  63  48  65  45  66 / 100  50  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  50  69  46  68 /  80  20   0   0   0
CALERA      64  50  65  46  65 / 100  50  10   0   0
AUBURN      63  52  63  47  63 / 100  90  20   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  53  67  47  67 / 100  70  10   0   0
TROY        68  53  64  48  65 / 100  60  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-110120-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
720 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN RATES...IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...MAY PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING. EVEN WITHOUT
HEAVIER RAINS...THE MODERATE RAIN DURATION OF SEVERAL HOURS MAY
EVENTUALLY ADD UP TO SOME AREAL FLOODING CONCERNS. AT THIS
TIME...THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 59.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE INCREASE...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

WHILE THE THREAT OF A SHORT-LIVED RAIN BAND TORNADO IS NOT ZERO...
WE BELIEVE THE THREAT IS VERY VERY LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE DURATION OF
THE EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF IDA.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE EXPERIENCED
AREA WIDE.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE BASIN AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BECOME NECESSARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

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