Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH PLACEMENT OF TODAYS
ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
THAT FOLLOWS THE LOW. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON FRIDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MISSOURI. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BEGAN
LATE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. PLENTY OF LIFT
AND A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO THE UPPER
30S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT EAST OF THERE. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND USHER IN VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE
DAY...AND CONTINUING TO FALL TO SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR
THIS SEASON BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN THE ARCTIC HIGH IS POSITIONED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 9PM TONIGHT...THEN TRANSITION THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES - ALL OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL - TO A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING TONIGHT WITH SNOW CONTINUING SOUTH AND BLOWING SNOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN TRANSITION TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ON
WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 45 BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT - BELOW 10 MPH - BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA AND WE SEE
A RETURN TO POLAR AIR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY LIKELY TO
BE THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOP THURSDAY
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM - BUT THIS ONE
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
PRECIP-WISE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE FLURRIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW THEN DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MEDIUM/LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO A MORE
QUIET ONE. THE CULPRIT BEHIND THIS CHANGE IS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THE UPPER JET STREAM/PRIMARY
STORM TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THUS A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD CAN BE
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOW LONG THIS LASTS IS UNCERTAIN.
THE LATEST ECMWF DEPICTS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS VERSIONS.

IN ADDITION TO DRY CONDITIONS...A NICE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL BY 10-15 DEGREES. AS USUAL THE
WARMEST AIR WILL RESIDE WEST WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AS YOU PROGRESS
EASTWARD. MORE SEASONAL AIR MAY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK APART.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND LOWER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS
EVENING AS PRECIPITATION ENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ONCE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO
BECOME MORE COMMON LATER TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>023-025.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 3
PM CST /2 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 3 PM CST /2 PM
MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

JV/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
503 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2009

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-141115-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
503 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2009 /403 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THE CLIPPER WILL SPREAD MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
3 TO 5 INCHES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIND CHILLS IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL DROP TO 25 TO 40 BELOW TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
MOVES INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE CLIPPER. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AND CENTRAL TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
241 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     SNOW             2 SW MINOT              48.21N 101.33W
01/13/2009  E3.5 INCH        WARD               ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KBIRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     SNOW             DICKINSON               46.88N 102.79W
01/13/2009  M1.5 INCH        STARK              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KBIRK