Wind Chill Advisory 12, NWS Bismarck, ND

Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grant County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE CLEANING UP GOING HEADLINES
THIS EVENING. SNOW IS TAPERING OFF WEST AND CENTRAL BUT CONTINUES
IN THE EAST. JMS ASOS STILL REPORTING A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY
WITH WINDS OF 30 T0 40 MPH. DEVILS LAKE IS ALSO STILL A HALF MILE
SO ALTHOUGH SNOW IS LIGHTER UP NORTH...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM ROLETTE COUNTY THROUGH PIERCE AND WELLS THROUGH 7 PM
AND THEN GO WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING THEREAFTER. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FROM JMS SOUTH TO THE BORDER CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP THIS HAZARD GOING...AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT UPDATE AS
NEEDED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...IT IS STILL PRETTY BAD AND ALTHOUGH
HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH...WITH THE STRONG WINDS
THE VISIBILITIES WILL STAY LOW AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER WEST...THINGS ARE A BIT CLEARER...AND COLDER. ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED IN THE WEST. ALONG THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH MOST AREAS GETTING ONLY A DUSTING.

ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT STRONG...WE ARE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ALREADY IN WIND CHILL
CRITERIA...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTH WILL APPROACH IF NOT VENTURE
INTO WARNING CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. TO BE SAFE...WILL ISSUE A WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND GO WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL NOON CDT ON WEDNESDAYS.

AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WE DID DROP TEMPERATES BACK
A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS...WE FINALLY BEGIN TO WARM UP. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES. BEYOND THIS WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER NICE WARMING
PERIOD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CIGS. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 6-9Z
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE CREATING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR-IFR
VIS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ICE JAMS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD ADVISORY FROM WHERE
THE LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER ENTERS NORTH DAKOTA TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
RAPID AND INTERMITTENT RISES IN THE RIVER STAGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY OCCASIONALLY CAUSE WATER LEVELS
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UPSTREAM OF THE JAM. AS ICE JAMS BECOME
DISLODGED...HIGH WATER LEVELS MAY TEMPORALLY OCCUR DOWN STREAM OF
THE JAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...ICE JAMS AND LOCALIZED HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN ON RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ001>004-009>012-017>019-021-022.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ020-031>036-040>047-050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-
013-023.

WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ005-013-023.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ025-037-048-051.

&&

TWH/NH/PJA

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