Wind Advisory 18, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS73 KBIS 021718
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2009

...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
TOWNS OF AMIDON...BOWMAN...NEW ENGLAND...MOTT... HETTINGER...AS
WELL AS ELGIN AND FORT YATES ARE IN THE WIND ADVISORY.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WINDS OVER
NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY...SO THAT BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

NDZ040>045-022100-
/O.CON.KBIS.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-091002T2100Z/
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARMARTH...MOTT...ELGIN...BOWMAN...
HETTINGER...FORT YATES
1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2009 /1118 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2009/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATE TO END WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
WEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM KABR TO EAST OF KBIS TO WEST OF
KISN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEST OF TROUGH AXIS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH. TROUGH MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CONCERNS FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT
36 HOURS...AND TEMPERATURES. WILL USE MODEL BLEND FOR GRIDS.

MAIN SURFACE FEATURE THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY
FILLS AS MAIN SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MID LEVEL LOW MOVE INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN. CURRENTLY...
DRY SLOT OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHTER WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA BUT CONTINUE TO BECOME LIGHTER AS SURFACE FORCING
WEAKENS WITH FILLING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MAIN MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED TO THE EAST.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION WILL TEMPER BOTH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME HIGHS. MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOME
CLEARING BEGINS TO OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED FREEZE HEADLINES BY
THEN.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM BEFORE APPROACH OF NEXT STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A COOL AND WET START TO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SENDS A STRONG SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SPREADS RAIN INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
THICKNESSES ARE AT CRITICAL LEVELS FOR A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW AT
NIGHT MONDAY. THAT MID LEVEL TROUGH THEN RETROGRADES BACK INTO
CALIFORNIA AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KEEPING THE WET CHANCES GOING THROUGH MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME IN CLEARING THE END OF THE WEEK BUT AFTER
THAT THINGS MUDDY AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER WEATHER AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD AVIATION HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LARGE AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN POCKETS OF -RA BR. AT 1930Z THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WAS ON A KMOT TO KABR LINE AND PUSHING VERY
SLOWLY EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WERE GUSTING TO NEAR 40
KNOTS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHWARD
AND COULD BRING LIFR CONDITIONS TO KJMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WE WILL LOOK FOR
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.

IN THE WEST...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME COULD MIX WITH -SN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
456 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-021>023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-021000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
456 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CONTINUOUS RAIN SHOWERS TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046-021000-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
456 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009 /356 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KS