Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
311 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR GLENDIVE...CURVING BACK TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
TROUGH WHILE MORE CONVECTION IS GROWING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDE CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW....ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND USED MODEL BLEND FOR GRIDS. TONIGHT
FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE WITH LITTLE CAPPING. STARTING TO SEE INCREASE
IN CONVECTION ALONG FRONT. TROUGH FORECAST TO CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY
03Z AND ALONG FORECAST AREA EASTERN BORDER BY 06Z. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH 50KT 85H
WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND MOST OF FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY NEED
ADVISORIES.

.LONG TERM...
ON SATURDAY THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BY SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MOVES OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERLIES AND THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES DEVELOP A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
CANADA/NORTH CENTRAL US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF THIS VIGOROUS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS
35 TO 45 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A STRONG LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND TO ANOTHER LOW IN
WYOMING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THESE LOWS WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
MAINLY EAST OF BISMARCK AND NEAR KJMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.

FARTHER WEST...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEHIND/ALONG THE
LOWS/TROUGHS WILL HELP SET OFF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...WINDS TO
50KTS OR MORE...AND HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE
STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT WESTERN TAF SITES KISN AND KDIK
AFTER 21Z...AFFECT KMOT AND KBIS AROUND 00Z...AND KJMS AROUND 02-05Z.

&&

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

HW/JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
523 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-131030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
523 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009 /423 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A
POTENT COLD FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

PLEASE CHECK BACK REGULARLY FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AS STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 AND 50 MPH DOMINATE. COLDER
AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THE BISMARCK NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WITH ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

KS

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