Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
355 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
CURRENTLY...AT 3 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED SOUTHEAST
THROUGH BISMARCK LEAVING THE WEST AND NORTH BENEATH A STRONGER CAP
THAN THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF BISMARCK. FIRST INITIATION OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY CATCH UP WITH THE SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE GFS/NAM MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/OVER-RUNNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A SECOND REGION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL THEN EXISTS AFTER 9 PM ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SCALE AGAIN TODAY...MOVING
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL TREND
THE FORECAST ON THE BROAD SCALE AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH.  OVERALL...WILL LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PERIODIC PRECIP IN THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER PIERRE BUT EXTENDS
NORTHEAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  A BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPS DOWN...BUT AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS KICKED OFF SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE CLEAR
AIR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ACCOMPANYING THE PRECIPITATION.  THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA...BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP IN EASTERN
MONTANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE AREA.  THIS WILL EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WAA/TSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-150930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
422 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009 /322 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. PLEASE REPORT ALL SEVERE WEATHER
TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK OR TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

NH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 AM     HAIL             8 NW HARVEY             47.85N 100.06W
08/14/2009  M1.25 INCH       WELLS              ND   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL FLATTENED GARDEN AND SUNFLOWER
            FIELD. REPORTS RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

PAYD

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