Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

CURRENTLY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHILE DEEP TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
HAS SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM IN
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES FROM NEAR ZONAL TONIGHT TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND...SEVERAL HARD-TO-DETECT WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
SHORTWAVES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...DAILY
CAPES FROM 500-1500 J/KG...AND DECENT SHEAR PROFILES DUE TO LOCAL
AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THIS EVENING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
MONTANA AND MOVE INTO MY SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SPC HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH JUST SKIRTS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF ND...WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS. I
EXPECT THAT SOME SEVERE CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

EXPECT SIMILAR SETUP FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SATURDAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED
AREA OF STORMS SITUATED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND EAST. WITH FLOW
SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE TERM.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AT BEGINNING OF EXTENDED PERIOD NORTH DAKOTA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY LOW TO THE EAST AND
A LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS HAVE NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY THE WESTERN LOW/TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE
STATE IS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE LOW/TROUGH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THUS HAVE A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
AND LOWS 55 TO 65.

 &&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN PUSHING INTO NORTHERN ND
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING IN THE NORTH WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY EVENING. SOUTHERN...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWESTERN ND...WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FROM MONTANA TO NEBRASKA.
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN MONTANA TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOCUS OF STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN TO
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF ND AND INTO WRN SD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

BPN/JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
419 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-030930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
419 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009 /319 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON FRIDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
513 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE BURNSTAD           46.35N 99.59W
07/02/2009  M1.15 INCH       LOGAN              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AS WELL.

&&

PJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
514 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE BURNSTAD           46.35N 99.59W
07/02/2009  M1.15 INCH       LOGAN              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AS WELL. ARB REPORT.

&&

PJA