Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 272025
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WILL OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE
STRONG WINDS WHEN COMBINED WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND
30 PERCENT AND RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDICES RANGING FROM VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME WILL CREATE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR DAY.
THUS A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

NDZ017-018-031>033-040>045-280200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090928T0200Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-
BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009 /225 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN NORTH DAKOTA...17...18...31...32...33...40...41...42
...43...44...45

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH
ALONG WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT AND VERY HIGH
TO EXTREME RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDICES WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 280220
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
920 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

NDZ017-018-031>033-040>045-280330-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090928T0200Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-
BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
920 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009 /820 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN NORTH DAKOTA...17...18...31...32...33...40...41...42
...43...44...45

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS HUMIDITIES 
CONTINUE TO RISE. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

SEVERAL WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. WE UPGRADED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY WAS ALSO UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY REMAINS WARRANTED ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA TODAY.

OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST TO CONTEND IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WILL BE
A POSSIBLE FROST ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER
RED FLAG WARNING MAY ALSO BE NEEDED TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ALL THE HEADLINES TODAY ARE CENTERED AROUND VERY STRONG WINDS
WHICH ARE READY TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
ALREADY SWEPT THREW. LATEST MSAS SHOWS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT UPSTREAM WITH A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE (+9MB/3HR)
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TOWARD AN EARLIER START WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRESSURE RISE...WHICH LOOKS TO ENTER OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES AROUND 12Z. IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MPH. THE
REST OF THE CWA IS IN A WIND ADVISORY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

THE LATEST RADAR LOOP IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. A 300MB 140KT JET WILL SLIDE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT/EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT (850-300MB OMEGA) FOR ISOLATED/
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG A
LINE FROM KISN/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 18Z...THEN SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER
EAST THEREAFTER. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN THE WEST AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH WILL KEEP THE AIR MIXED
JUST ENOUGH TO STAY ABOVE FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IN THE WEST AREAS
OF FROST LOOK MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. A COUPLE OF SPOTS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING MONDAY MORNING.
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT SIFT THROUGH THIS WITH THE LATEST DATA AND
ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES IF NEEDED.

BEYOND TODAY...DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
THEME FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 55F TO 65F OVER THE CWA...THEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 65F TO 75F. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TUESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BRING MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION AND HWO.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A TRANSITION TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL GET UNDERWAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN ON THURSDAY AND DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THUS WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LOW DEPARTS FOR THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TEMPORARILY DRYING THINGS OUT AS THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WITH SCT NATURE OF RAIN...HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH
GROUPS FOR STARTERS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KDIK. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE
WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (KTS) AT
ALL SITES...STRONGEST AT KDIK...FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 20
TO 30 PERCENT WITH VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 AND 60 MPH. RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDICES ARE
MOSTLY IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH A COUPLE AREAS IN THE EXTREME
RANGE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONG WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...THUS A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE ON FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR MONDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH ALONG WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT AND VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A
THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. WILL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AND ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES IF THE DATA REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040>045.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KK/RK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
525 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-271030-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
525 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009 /425 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND
25 PERCENT AND RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDICES RANGING FROM VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME MAY CREATE ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR
DAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID 30S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-271030-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
525 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009 /425 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
GENERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT. RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
INDICES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS VERY HIGH. THUS THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND
VERY HIGH RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDICES WILL YIELD A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER BEHAVIOR DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON SUNDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT AND RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
INDICES RANGING FROM VERY HIGH TO EXTREME MAY CREATE ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR DAY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
55 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST EXISTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID 30S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

NDZ009-010-017>019-021-031-032-270915-
BILLINGS ND-DUNN ND-GOLDEN VALLEY ND-MCKENZIE ND-MCLEAN ND-MERCER
ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-WILLIAMS ND-
315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MCKENZIE...DUNN...EASTERN
WILLIAMS...MOUNTRAIL...NORTHERN BILLINGS...NORTHEASTERN GOLDEN
VALLEY...MERCER AND WESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT/315 AM
MDT/...

AT 213 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH OVER WESTERN
MCKENZIE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER
WILLIAMS...DUNN...MOUNTRAIL AND MERCER COUNTIES. THESE RAIN SHOWERS
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE RAIN SHOWERS.

SIMOSKO