Ice Storm Warning 1, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
704 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

.UPDATE...
A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO MENTION PATCHY MORNING FOG WEST.
ALSO...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND HPC QPF PLACEMENTS
AND AMOUNTS. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WILL TREND
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER. GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL WRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE SYSTEM BRINGING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP IS
LIKELY TO START AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE AS SNOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE MOST SNOW WILL FALL
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A LINE THROUGH BISMARCK AND
MINOT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
DURING THE DAY MOST AREAS...COOLING INTO THE 20S DURING THE NIGHT.
THE WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER LIKELY TO SEE THE
BIGGEST DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW EVENT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT WITH A MAINLY DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME AFTER OUR
SIGNIFICANT EARLY WEEK STORM. WILL SEE A FAMILIAR PATTERN SETTING
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST MAYBE
AN EXCEPTION. COOLER TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE SFC HIGH AND WARMER
TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO RETURN FLOW. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. AFTERWARDS
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SOUTH TO NORTH AS LEADING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM PUSHES NORTH THROUGH
WEST/CENTRAL ND SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR AND LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. EXTREME AVIATION WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO LAST OVER
MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE FAR WEST MAY
ESCAPE THE WORSE CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
415 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-091015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-
BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
415 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2009 /315 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY...AND LIGHT
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-091015-
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MERCER-OLIVER-
MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
415 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2009 /315 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THEN CHANGE TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WHICH MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AND DISRUPT
POWER AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY SIGNIFICANT REPORTS
CONCERNING SNOW OR ICE CONDITIONS.