Blizzard Watch 4, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Williams County, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
416 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ONSHORE TODAY AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY...AND MOVE OUT INTO
THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL INTENSIFY
AND BY MONDAY IT DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP...AND BY SUNDAY MORNING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A MAIN
CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PLAINS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES APPROACHES
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSHOWERS. THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS DEVELOPING
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR COLORADO/WYOMING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STREAM NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE STATE. BEHIND THE LOW...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...SNOW AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. MEANWHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ON MONDAY AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH
IT. EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
CENTRAL WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW (WITH A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN PROBABLY MONDAY AFTERNOON). MONDAY NIGHT CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.

HAVE COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES AND WILL ISSUE A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE CENTRAL THIRD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BY THEN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF.

CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S...50S...AND 60S TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE SNOW MELT
GOING...THEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING PROBLEMS. EXPECTING RUNOFF DUE TO
ACCELERATED SNOW MELT COMBINING WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
ICE JAMMING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND OF ECMWF AND
GFS FOR DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR DAY 8 ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO DAYTIME
HOURS.

POWERFUL MOVING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 12Z
TUESDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. 85H ZERO
DEGREE LINE AT THAT TIME RUNS FROM FT YATES TO BISMARCK TO RUGBY TO
ROLETTE WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION EAST OF LINE AND SNOW WEST. IN
ADDITION PRESSURE REMAINS TIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING.

LOW MOVES EAST TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY PULLING HEAVY
PRECIP AND STRONGEST WINDS WITH IT. UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AS
THURSDAY WITH SLOW MOVING SECONDARY CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ON
NORTHWEST FLOW TO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS CONTINUE TO RISE AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MELT THE DEEP WINTER SNOW PACK.
CURRENTLY...THE MOST NOTABLE AREAS OF CONCERN ARE ALONG CEDAR
CREEK SOUTH OF RALEIGH AND ALONG THE CANNONBALL RIVER NEAR BREIEN.
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO ELEVATED LEVELS ON AREA CREEKS
AND RIVERS...AS WELL AS FOR THE THREAT OF ICE JAMS. ICE JAMS ARE
ESPECIALLY LIKELY AT BENDS IN THE RIVER AND AT BRIDGES. SHOULD AN
ICE JAM FORM...RAPID FLUCTUATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH A RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
LITTLE OR NO WARNING UPSTREAM OF THE JAM.

THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN SNOW THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS STORM IS STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY...THEREFORE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH CONCERNING THE AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW. SHOULD THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION
OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT FLOODING
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-032>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

JV/HW

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