Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
348 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OUR DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...ALLOWING DRIER WEATHER TO SET IN FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION DOTS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS THE LATEST UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE ROTATES ACROSS NY/PA. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM EARLIER
THINKING WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS THE MAIN
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING
CELLS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ISOLATED...AT BEST...GIVEN
WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...AND THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYERS ALOFT.

SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT...AS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND DIURNAL
STABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...THOUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LINGERING SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...MORE OF THE SAME...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...PROBABLY MAXIMIZING IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...COINCIDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD INDICATE SOMEWHAT
LESS INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...SO THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE LIMITED.

SOME NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT MAY BE ON THE WAY FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY ITSELF...AS THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SHOWS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW FILLING AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN CANADA.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW RISING HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN ON SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WEVE
INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACCORDING TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE THE REAMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER TROF/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY THE WEDS-THURS TIME PERIOD. IF CURRENT SOLUTIONS PAN OUT...THIS
CASE WILL ACTUALLY PUT US ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW...AND
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TUES-WEDS...WERE NOT
EXPECTING TO BE AS WET AS THIS CURRENT WEEK WITH MAINLY JUST SCATTERED
DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GTLKS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WX THURSDAY.
NO EXTREMES IN TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW STILL POISED OVER LOWER ONTARIO AND WRN LAKE ONTARIO...WITH
YET ANOTHER AFTERNOON COMPRISED OF MIXED VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAY EVEN BRING 15 MINUTES OF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY IN THE TERMINALS FOR ANY
LENGTH OF TIME TODAY...BUT IT/S LIKELY THEY WILL ALL EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER...SO HAVE INDICATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ONLY WITH CB GROUPS. THE SPOKE OF ENERGY DRIVING THESE SHOWERS WILL
ROTATE TO OUR NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE A BREAK
WITH LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO HIGHER DECK VFR CIGS. DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE BLYR WILL AGAIN CAUSE FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS TO
FORM WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN AFT 05Z THROUGH
SUNRISE.

CIG RESTRICTIONS ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR DURG LATE
MORNING BUT SHOULD REACH AT LEAST OCNL VFR BTWN 15Z-18Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR AM. VFR PM.
SAT...EARLY AM MVFR LOCAL IFR...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUN-TUES...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
352 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-032000-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
352 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD TAKE PLACE LOCALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

NYZ044-045-056-PAZ039-021945-
BROOME NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-
246 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT
CHENANGO...EASTERN BROOME...EASTERN CORTLAND AND SUSQUEHANNA
COUNTIES...

AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TAYLOR AND
CINCINNATUS SOUTH TO CHENANGO FORKS AND BINGHAMTON TO RUSH AND
AUBURN CENTER. THIS LINE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WATSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
423 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

NYZ045-046-057-062-022130-
CHENANGO NY-DELAWARE NY-OTSEGO NY-SULLIVAN NY-
423 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DELAWARE...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL SULLIVAN...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CHENANGO AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES...

* AT 421 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
  LINE EXTENDING FROM PITTSFIELD TO OTEGO TO 8 MILES WEST OF
  HARVARD...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WALTON AT 445 PM EDT...
  ONEONTA AT 450 PM EDT...
  HARTWICK AT 505 PM EDT...
  MEREDITH AT 515 PM EDT...
  MARYLAND AND DELHI AT 525 PM EDT...
  DAVENPORT AND COOPERSTOWN AT 530 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WATSON

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