Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TASTE OF MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
THEN EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS THAN WEVE SEEN RECENTLY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH LATE MONDAY...THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS BASED ON CRNTS AND CONDS
XPCTD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. STILL MUCH DEBATE AS TO THE PSBLTY OF
SVR CONV THIS AFTN. LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO SHOW SOME COOL AIR
DAMMING OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...PERHAPS RE-ENFORCED BY THE
LINE OF CONV ABOUT TO ENTER WRN NY. INSTABILTY FIELDS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER XTRM SW NY AND NRN OH. RADAR TREND FROM BUF
SEEMS TO SHOW THE LINE DROPPING SOUTH TWRD THAT INSTABILITY. IF
THIS HAPPENS THE THREAT FOR SVR THIS AFTN OVER THE FCST AREA SHD
BE DIMINISHED. STILL...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH SO WILL CONT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH TO THE EAST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION
SHOULD ALSO DO SO. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS MODEL SOUNDING PROGS
DEPICT RESIDUAL INSTABILITY...AND AT LEAST ONE MORE UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE SHOULD BRUSH UPSTATE NY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT OVERNIGHT...DOWN INTO NORTHEAST PA.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...MAY EXERT
ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS AGAIN...AS
DEEP-LAYERED SPEED SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE
FLOW SHOULD ALSO BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WEST BY THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 90
DEGREES IN THE MORE URBANIZED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHEAST PA.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES MORE EVIDENT BY TUESDAY...AS THE GFS IS
MUCH QUICKER TO BRING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE
NAM IS SLOWER...NOT PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THE EVENING.
AT THIS POINT...WELL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER NAM...AS THIS FRONT
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A HOT SUMMER-TIME RIDGE. THUS...WELL KEEP IN
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS AFTN. LTL CHG TO MED RNG PCKG WHICH
FOLLOWS HPC GUIDANCE. MAIN QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF UPR LVL TROFINESS
OVER THE NE U.S. LATER IN THE WEEK. PREV GFS RUNS APPEARED TOO
STRONG/AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND ASSCD PCPN...LATEST RUN HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. 00Z EURO WAS DRY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A
PC/DRY FCST WTIH SLGT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS AND SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRACKING CONVECTIVE LINE ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN WHICH WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LINE MOVG SEWD IN THE
18-21Z TIME FRAME. DIFFICULT CALL TAF-WISE FOR TNGT. WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ENUF AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE TEMPO OR PROB GROUPS
AFTER 00Z...ALTHO THERE WILL BE POTNL FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA AT ALMOST
ANY TIME. SO...WILL JUST SHOW GNRL MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE LINE
PSSG THIS AFTN DUE TO HZ/BR AND POTNLY LOW CIGS AND WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDNL CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT AND AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS SWLY 10-15 KTS
ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER...WITH SELY FLOW
PERSISTING AT RME. WINDS TNGT XPCTD TO BE SWLY 5-10 KTS...INCRSNG
TO 10-20 KTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK
SUN NGT INTO TUES...OCNL MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
TUES NGT THRU FRIDAY...VFR...WITH LATE NGT/EARLY MRNG RESTRICTIONS AT
ELM DUE TO VLY FOG.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1225 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-PAZ038-039-101630-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
TIOGA-BROOME-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
1225 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS PERHAPS BECOMING SEVERE.
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NYZ046-057-062-101630-
OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
1225 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH STORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS PERHAPS BECOMING SEVERE.
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072-101630-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1225 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS PERHAPS BECOMING SEVERE.
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

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