Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD
BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MANY PLACES WILL BE RAIN-FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...UPDATED AT 405 PM...

SHORT CONVECTIVE LINES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS NY/PA AT THIS
TIME...AS FORCING FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE INTERACTS WITH A
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...CLOSER TO A RESIDUAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR. WE BELIEVE OUR GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88...ALTHOUGH MORE ISOLATED
SEVERE COULD ALSO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA...AND
PORTIONS OF NYS SOUTHERN TIER.

BY LATER THIS EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH...AS FORCING
WANES AND THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE RAIN FALLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK QUIETER THAN RECENT DAYS...AS HEIGHTS ARE
PROGGED TO RISE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ONE MORE UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO WEVE RETAINED A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDE FOR EXTENDED WHICH WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES. THE PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES WITH MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS PA AND NY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS.
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH SKIES GENERALLY VFR. AFTER 08Z
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG AND CIGS IN STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SRN TIER NY AND NE PA. KELM MAY GO IFR IN THE VALLEY BETWEEN
09 AND 13Z. AFT 15Z MON VFR.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR RETURNS...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE IN FOG...MOSTLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BMW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
404 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

NYZ056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-272015-
BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
404 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...BOTH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...LATER
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-PAZ038-272015-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BRADFORD-
404 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MJ

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