Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRING AN END
TO OUR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHRT WV MVG THRU WRN NY ATTM HELPING TO TRIGGER SCT SHWRS AND
STORMS OVER THE AREA. ELECTED TO KEEP LIKELY POS FOR A FEW HRS
THIS EVE MAINLY DUE TO THE GOOD CVRG OF THE STORMS CRNTLY ON THE
RADAR MOSAIC. LTR THIS EVE...SHRT WV PULLS NE AND THE AREA COMES
UNDER AN ANREA OF WEAK DVM BRINGING AN END TO THE SHWRS AND EVEN
ALLOWING THE SKIES TO CLR. HIER DEW PTS WITH MOD CROSSOVER TEMPS
WILL WORK WITH LGT WINDS TO ALLOW CNSRBL FOG TO FORM OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY /...

SRT WV RDG AND DRIER AIR BLDS FOR SAT AHD OF THE NEXT SHRT WV.
THIS NEXT WV LOOKS QUITE STRONG AND HAS A SFC REFLECTION IN THE
FORM OF AN OPEN WV AND SHRP SFC TROF. THIS SHD TRIGGER A BKN LINE
AND AREA OF SHWRS AND TRWS LATE SAT AND SAT NGT AS IT ROTATES
THRU THE OLD CLSD LOW. FNT STALLS AND WEAKENS SUN AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE LOW LVL FLOW. THIS SHD RESULT IN CONT SHWRS AND
TRWS DURING THE DAY.

ON SUN...UPR LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NWRD IN RESPONSE TO THE
WRN ATLANTIC RDG...WHICH BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF BLDG WWRD. THIS
ALLOWS THE FCST AREA TO FNLY SEE SOME BLDG HGTS AND WRMR AIR.
HWVR...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA SO THE THREAT OF SCT
CONV CONTS...ESP IN THE AFTN WITH MAX HTG. ON MON...FLOW BECOMES A
BIT FLATTER AS THE RDG CONTS TO BLD...BUT STILL SOME RIPPLES
PASSING BY MAY HELP TO TRIGGER AFTN CONV.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN...AS A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARDS US FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS GENERALLY SPELLS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (DAYTIME
HIGHS NOT FAR FROM 80)...AND A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY
COME LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THIS TIME FRAME...SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND CONCENTRATED MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS IN PASSING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS KELM LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WHEN A PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS FORESEEN.
THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY TO 10-15 KT FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT AND SUN...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING...AS
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR RETURNS...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN FOG...MOSTLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-250700-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
251 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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