Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Binghamton, NY

000 
WGUS71 KBGM 191838
FFSBGM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

PAC069-079-191847-
/O.CAN.KBGM.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-090819T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUZERNE PA-LACKAWANNA PA-
238 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA
AND NORTHEASTERN LUZERNE COUNTIES...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AVOCA...
  DUNMORE...MOOSIC...MOSCOW...OLD FORGE AND SCRANTON.

HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES IN 
OLD FORGE AND MOOSIC.  HOWEVER THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HEAVY 
RAIN HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.  THEREFORE... THE 
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4137 7594 4141 7590 4142 7585 4148 7580
      4142 7546 4128 7550

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1103 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT
WILL WORK BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
14Z HAND DRAWN SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT BISECTING CNTRL NY
WITH DWPTS STARTING TO DROP FROM WRN TO N CNTRL NY. FRONT IS
MOVING SLOWLY AND EXPECT IT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NEPA THIS
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LAYERED CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT WE WILL STILL DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY IN NEPA. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREV
FCST...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY EXPECTED I HAVE UPPED
POPS A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN NY NEAR THE BORDER COUNTIES WITH EVEN LESS ACTIVITY
FURTHER NORTH.

NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR OTHER PARAMETERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA OVER NIGHT AND THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...ACTIVITY WILL BE QUELLED FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD
MOST LIKELY KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA TO CONTINUE RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

BY THURSDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS BACK OUT AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE CWA AND POSSIBLE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN BY FRIDAY MORNING...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CWA AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT YET
PUSHES THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...HIGH PWATS
ON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME LOOK GOOD. UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISM FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-81. BOTH THE 12Z EURO AND 0Z GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE POSITION OF BILL WELL OFF THE COAST...A COLD FRONT JUST
TO OUR EAST...AND AN UPPER TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF
THE MODELS ARE ACCURATE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES DO NOT POP
UP...THIS WOULD PUT US IN THE DRY SECTOR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
AHEAD OF MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROF BACK TO OUR WEST. INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE MAY OCCUR DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF BILL. JUST
GLANCED AT THE NEW 0Z EURO AND IT STILL SHOWS US IN THE SWEET SPOT
SATURDAY...BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS AND DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SLOWING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN THESE AREAS SO THAT SHOULD COVER
IT.

WHATEVER HAPPENS ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROF MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST...FELT AT LEAST LOW END SHOWER CHANCES
WERE WARRANTED. UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEFORE LIFTING OUT. TEMPS WILL COOL TO
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR TO AT TIMES LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KSYR AND KRME DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. VISIBILITIES
IMPROVED A FOR A TIME AT KELM BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
DAWN...FOG IS AGAIN REFORMING. A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 5KTS
MAY HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z BUT 0Z NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z.

AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF OUR FOCUS WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT
IS JUST NOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF CLOUDS IS INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH HOURS OF
SUNSHINE TO HELP GENERATE MORE CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
GOING FORECAST AS A CB GROUP IN TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS POINT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP. BEST TIMING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z NORTH...AND 16Z AND 21Z NEAR KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR/IFR. CHC RAIN/TS
SAT...VFR.
SUN...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.
MON....VFR. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...EMH
AVIATION...DJN/EMH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
117 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-201730-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-
117 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-201730-
DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
117 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG TOWN AND VILLAGE STREETS.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.