Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS43 KARX 250114
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
714 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2009

...ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...

.OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO AS HIGH PRESSURE TO WEST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PULL
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL COMBINE
WITH THE COLD AIR TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS OF
20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

WIZ017-029-250915-
/O.CON.KARX.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090125T1800Z/
TAYLOR-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE
714 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2009

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY. 

AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO COMBINED WITH A
WEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO THIS EVENING. AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO...EXPECT WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

$$

04

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

000 
WWUS43 KARX 250515
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1115 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2009

...ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNPLEASANT WIND CHILLS...

.HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO TO PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

WIZ017-029-251315-
/O.CON.KARX.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090125T1800Z/
TAYLOR-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE
1115 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2009

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY. 

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

$$

04

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

000 
WWUS43 KARX 250913
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
313 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

...BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING...

.HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO
10 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS BELOW ZERO TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 35
BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.

WIZ017-029-251715-
/O.CON.KARX.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090125T1800Z/
TAYLOR-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE
313 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY. 

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

$$

RABERDING

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

000 
WWUS43 KARX 251404
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
804 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

...WIND CHILLS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...

.HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO
10 MPH COMBINED WITH THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS MORNING.

WIZ017-029-251800-
/O.CON.KARX.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090125T1800Z/
TAYLOR-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE
804 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY. 

WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 10
BELOW ZERO WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

$$
RRS

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

000 
WWUS43 KARX 251752
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

...BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS DIMINISHING...

.WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR AND ABOVE ZERO AND THE WINDS 
GENERALLY LIGHT...WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT MID-DAY.

WIZ017-029-251900-
/O.EXP.KARX.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090125T1800Z/
TAYLOR-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE
1152 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY. 

WIND CHILLS ARE NO LONGER LESS THAN 20 BELOW ZERO...THUS THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

$$
RRS

WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IN ALBERTA TO IA. VIS/IR IMAGERY SHOWED
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE POLAR
VORTEX CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER ABOUT
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF NOAM. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
REGION...MID-DAY TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF MN/IA/
WI/DAKOTAS REMAINED NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.

24.12Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZED QUITE WELL AND OFFER VERY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS WELL
SUPPORTED BY NON-NCEP MODELS AND LOCAL/REGIONAL WRF MODELS. DPROG/DT
OF 500MB HGTS AT 24.12Z SHOWED NAM/GFS/ECMWF RUNS OF 22.12Z AND
23.12Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM WITH EDGE AND BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY TO GFS/ECMWF. THRU 36HRS MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A
COMMON SOLUTIONS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. FOR 36-84HRS TREND CONTINUES TOWARD A COMPROMISE/COMMON
SOLUTION AS THE TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ECMWF AGAIN WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND LESS OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT
FLOW. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED MODELS ALL QUITE
REASONABLE WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. PER WV
IMAGERY...MODELS DEPICTIONS OF SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN
PAC APPEARED GOOD. NO DETERMINISTIC MODEL FAVORITE THIS CYCLE...
THOUGH WITH SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR FAVORING ANY ONE PARTICULAR
MODEL WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THRU TUE
NIGHT. SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGES FOR THE AREA/S WEATHER
TONIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
POLAR VORTEX MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN CAN AND RIDGING ALOFT REBUILDS
INTO SOUTHWEST CAN. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES LITTLE
FOR TONIGHT THRU MON WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING OVER
THE AREA FOR MON NIGHT/TUE. SFC-700MB THERMAL ADVECTION REMAINS
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THRU THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. BULK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...
SATURATION/LIFT AND SNOW CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN INCREASE OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR TONIGHT/SUN AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS SQUEEZED THRU THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE DEEPER OF THIS...500-250MB...IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND REMAINS THERE THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. SHOULD BE A BROAD RANGE OF LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND
SUN/MON NIGHTS...WITH MORE CLOUDS SOUTH VS. FEWER CLOUDS AND A
COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTH. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY
RELAXED TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. THIS RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THRU MON NIGHT THEN WEAKEN
FURTHER WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. QUESTION
IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WIND TO JUSTIFY A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS ALREADY LIGHT TODAY...DECOUPLING EXPECTED WITH
SUNSET/COOLING THIS EVENING. AREA LEAST LIKELY TO DECOUPLE IS NORTH
END OF THE FORECAST AREA...FURTHEST FROM RIDGE AXIS/HIGH CENTER.
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS AND GREATER THREAT OF SOME GRADIENT WIND
OVERNIGHT...WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES
TONIGHT THRU SUN MORNING. WITH LOWS NOT AS COLD AND LESS WIND...
HITTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME APPEARS QUITE
MARGINAL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME MODERATION TUE/TUE
NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE FIRST MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. SFC-700MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH SLOW
WARMING OF LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE LOWS ABOUT 5F TOO WARM LAST NIGHT...THUS FAVORED COLDER OF
GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT AND LOWERED THESE A CATEGORY OR TWO IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER AREAS WHERE WINDS READILY DECOUPLE. TRENDED TOWARD
COLDER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SUN/MON. FAVORED COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS
SUN/MON NIGHTS AND LOWERED THESE A CATEGORY OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH
END WITH FEWER CLOUDS. FAVORED A BLEND OF GFS MEX/ENSEMBLE MOS AND
HPC GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS TUE/TUE NIGHT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

24.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS FOR WED THRU SAT...AT LEAST WITH THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW FEATURES ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALLER SCALE/SHORTWAVE DETAILS THRU THE
PERIOD BUT THIS NOT UNEXPECTED. GFS WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW/ENERGY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY ON...ECMWF LESS SPLIT/MORE PROGRESSIVE.
24.06Z GFS MORE SIMILAR TO ECMWF. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...WITH AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD AVERAGE. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE THU/THU
NIGHT...WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT/THU. MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN LIMITED...BUT WITH THE SFC
TROUGH PASSAGE...DEEPER/COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINED A
SMALL -SN CHANCE THESE PERIODS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE/
NORTHWEST FLOW/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THU NIGHT/FRI. WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT AHEAD OF
NEXT LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CAN. APPEARS BULK OF ENERGY
AND DEEPER SATURATION REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEFT
FRI NIGHT/SAT DRY FOR NOW. GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS...TRENDED TOWARD GFS ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE
VALUES FOR HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR WIZ017-WIZ029.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS
AVIATION..........THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
501 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2009

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-251200-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
501 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS LINGERING IN THE 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO RANGE. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL WORSEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
WARRANT ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SLOWLY IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

DAS