Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 272202
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
502 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

WIC057-081-123-272245-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-090727T2245Z/
JUNEAU WI-MONROE WI-VERNON WI-
502 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND SOUTHWESTERN JUNEAU
COUNTIES...

AT 501 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HOFFMAN CORNERS...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF TOMAH...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOUNT TABOR AND GLENDALE AROUND 510 PM...
  TRIPPVILLE AND BARTONS CORNERS AROUND 515 PM...
  ELROY AND DILLY AROUND 520 PM...
  HILLSBORO AND UNION CENTER AROUND 530 PM...
  BENDERS CORNERS AND PLEASANT RIDGE AROUND 535 PM...
  WONEWOC AROUND 540 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO CALL YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORT DIRECTLY INTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DIAL 6 0 8 7 8 2 1 8 9 4.

&&

LAT...LON 4365 8999 4364 9002 4364 9031 4356 9031
      4356 9042 4374 9062 4389 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 315DEG 20KT 4375 9047

$$

RRS

000 
WWUS53 KARX 272222
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
522 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

WIC057-081-123-272245-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-090727T2245Z/
JUNEAU WI-MONROE WI-VERNON WI-
522 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND SOUTHWESTERN JUNEAU
COUNTIES...

AT 520 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR TRIPPVILLE...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAUSTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HILLSBORO AND UNION CENTER AROUND 530 PM...
  BENDERS CORNERS AND PLEASANT RIDGE AROUND 535 PM...
  WONEWOC AROUND 540 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY OR MOVE INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE CAREFUL OF FALLING
TREES...POWER POLES OR LINES...AND LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS THAT MIGHT
BECOME AIRBORNE.

TO CALL YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORT DIRECTLY INTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DIAL 6 0 8 7 8 2 1 8 9 4.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4381 9046 4369 9017 4364 9011 4364 9031
      4356 9031 4356 9042 4374 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 315DEG 20KT 4368 9037

$$

RRS

000 
WWUS53 KARX 272232
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
532 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

WIC057-081-272243-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-090727T2245Z/
JUNEAU WI-MONROE WI-
532 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND
SOUTHWESTERN JUNEAU COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

TO CALL YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORT DIRECTLY INTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DIAL 6 0 8 7 8 2 1 8 9 4.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4372 9043 4373 9032 4364 9032 4356 9031
      4356 9042 4372 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 315DEG 20KT 4364 9031

$$

WIC123-272245-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-090727T2245Z/
VERNON WI-
532 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON COUNTY...

AT 532 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HILLSBORO...OR 16 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MAUSTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY OR MOVE INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE CAREFUL OF FALLING
TREES...POWER POLES OR LINES...AND LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS THAT MIGHT
BECOME AIRBORNE.

TO CALL YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORT DIRECTLY INTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DIAL 6 0 8 7 8 2 1 8 9 4.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4372 9043 4373 9032 4364 9032 4356 9031
      4356 9042 4372 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 315DEG 20KT 4364 9031

$$

RRS

000 
WWUS53 KARX 272240 RRA
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

WIC123-272251-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-090727T2245Z/
VERNON WI-
540 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 545 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.

TO CALL YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORT DIRECTLY INTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DIAL 6 0 8 7 8 2 1 8 9 4.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4372 9043 4373 9032 4364 9032 4356 9031
      4356 9042 4372 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 315DEG 20KT 4361 9026

$$

RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
313 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BETWEEN KRGK AND KONA. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW INTO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO NEBRASKA.
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
WARM FRONT TONIGHT ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MESO MODELS THIS AFTERNOON SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING SITUATION. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT SHOULD REMAIN MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE GOOD
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 28.00Z AND THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY 28.03Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR RAISING THE RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
TUESDAY. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...WILL HOLD ON TO SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS INTO
THE REGION. COMPARING THE 27.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS TO THE 26.09Z SREFS AND 27.00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN...THE NAM
AND GFS LOOK TO OVER DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...VERY DOUBTFUL THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO AMPLIFY
AS MUCH AS THESE TWO MODELS SHOW AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
WEAKER SOLUTIONS. EXPECTED A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT TO
COME ACROSS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD THESE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

TODAY/S SET OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...BUT EXHIBIT ALMOST NO
AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. IN THIS REGARD...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SURFACE LOW COMING OUT OF MISSOURI AND THE RESULTANT RAINFALL EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. THE 25.00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT
SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE IGNORED THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINING NEAR HUDSONS BAY AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DID MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THE AREA. HOWEVER...WENT BACK TO A MORE GENERAL LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE DAY. THE NEXT RAIN
CHANCE THEN LOOKS TO BE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND WILL HAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM
FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. OTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH 27.23Z AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH 28.02Z.

IN ADDITION...A SMALL AREA OF 2-3K FOOT CEILINGS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS CLOUD DECK IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY AFFECT KRST THROUGH 27.23Z
AND NOT GET INTO THE KLSE AREA.

BEYOND THIS EVENING...BOTH CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-281100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1152 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF ANY OF
THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND EARLY INDICATIONS FAVOR CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...AND 4 PM AND 9 PM IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BOYNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
430 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

WIZ054-055-061-280000-
CRAWFORD-GRANT-RICHLAND-
430 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THROUGH 700 PM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

BOYNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
431 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-272300-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-FAYETTE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-WINNESHIEK-
431 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THROUGH 600 PM...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

BOYNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
433 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             3 NE SPARTA             43.97N 90.77W
07/27/2009  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED FROM ANGELO WITH SOME WIND DAMAGE

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
438 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRIENDSHIP              43.97N 89.82W
07/27/2009                   ADAMS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD JUST SOUTH OF FRIENDSHIP...ALSO
            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

BROOKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
439 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N FRIENDSHIP          44.00N 89.82W
07/27/2009                   ADAMS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
444 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E SPARTA              43.94N 90.71W
07/27/2009                   MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 16 NEAR FORT MCCOY

&&

SHEA