Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 290259
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1059 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...LATE SEASON WINTER STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS TO
A POSITION OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FEEDING A STEADY STREAM OF COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN WILL RESULT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER GUSTY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>027-031-032-291200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0008.090329T0300Z-090329T2200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC
1059 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM. SNOW WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHEBOYGAN TO WILLIAMSBURG TO MESICK.

A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. A MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IN PLACES LIKE CADILLAC...KALKASKA...AND GAYLORD WILL RESULT
IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER
INCH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS
SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION..
$$

MIZ008-015-291700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0008.090329T0600Z-090330T0300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1059 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING HEAVY AT
TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATE SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-75. A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...THOUGH ANY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL RESULT IN LOWER TOTALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$

MIZ018-023-028-033-034-291200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0022.090329T0300Z-090329T2200Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-CRAWFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...GRAYLING...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
1059 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY. 

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT...BECOMING BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNRISE.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET IS EXPECTED...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ024-029-030-035-291200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0022.090329T0300Z-090329T1200Z/
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
WEST BRANCH
1059 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY. 

A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...
BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JZ

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 290811
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS TO A POSITION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FEEDING A STEADY STREAM OF COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW... SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN
WILL RESULT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM INTO TONIGHT.

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>027-031-032-292200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090329T2200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC
411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING. SNOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM CHEBOYGAN TO WILLIAMSBURG TO MESICK.

A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
USE EXTREME CAUTION..

$$

MIZ008-015-292215-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090330T0300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL IMPACT EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-75. A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$

MIZ024-029-030-035-292200-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-090329T2200Z/
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
WEST BRANCH
411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE 3 TO 5 INCHES BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH...CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ018-023-028-033-034-292200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-090329T2200Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-CRAWFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...GRAYLING...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE 3 TO 5 INCHES BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH...CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MR

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 291534
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1134 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...

.LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AT MIDDAY WILL
PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL WIND
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SEEING A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND DRIZZLE.

MIZ017-022-025>027-031-032-291645-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090329T2200Z/
CHEBOYGAN-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC
1134 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW OR SLEET SHOWERS.

$$

MIZ018-023-024-028>030-033>035-291645-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-090329T2200Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH
1134 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF I-75...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

$$

MIZ016-019>021-292100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090329T2100Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...
MANCELONA
1134 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN NOON AND 5 PM OF LESS THAN TWO INCHES
EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
USE EXTREME CAUTION..

$$

MIZ008-015-292100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090329T2100Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1134 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL IMPACT EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY
OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-75. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$

JPB

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 292009
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
409 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

MIZ008-015-016-019>021-292115-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090329T2100Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
409 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 


$$

JPB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 357 PM/

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
THUMB OF LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WORK-WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 357 PM/...TONIGHT

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 992MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO...
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS UPPER SYSTEM CATCHES UP TO IT. SURFACE
PRESSURE/ISALLOBARIC PATTERN SUGGEST SECONDARY LOW SPINNING UP
OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL. NICE DEFORMATION PRECIP SHIELD WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTH/WEST SIDES OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS IL/SOUTHERN IN.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ADVANCING/EXPANDING TO THE NORTH/
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOIST INFLOW AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MOVE IN (PERHAPS COMPLICATED
A BIT BY CONVECTIVE LINE REMNANTS THAT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY).  PRECIP NOT LIKELY TO REACH NORTH OF THE
BRIDGE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BIGGEST HEADACHE WILL BE DEALING WITH
PRECIP TYPES...AS PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS MOSTLY THE FROZEN
VARIETY (SNOW/SLEET)...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD MORE LIQUID ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF EASTERN UPPER AND
ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW...AND FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES (GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO) WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN (THOUGH
COULD START OUT WITH SOME ICE PELLETS).  IN BETWEEN WILL BE THE
TRANSITION ZONE WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABLY STARTING OUT AS MAINLY
SNOW AND/OR SLEET...THEN AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO WRAP IN FROM THE
EAST OVERNIGHT MAY SEE THINGS TRY AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND
PROBABLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY HANGING ON
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLS EAST OF I-75.  THE
I-75 CORRIDOR NORTH OF HTL MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AND SLEET
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST WARM AIR GETS.  AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE GONE 3-5 INCHES WEST OF A CAD-GLR-SLH LINE WHERE
SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE MOST PREVALENT...AND 1-2 INCHES EASTERN UPPER
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL START LAST.  SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE LOW SIDE...SO A PRETTY WET SNOW ANTICIPATED.  OTHER ISSUE IS THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST/NORTH WIND TONIGHT...LIKELY GUSTING OVER 30 MPH
AT TIMES.  SO SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW EXPECTED...BUT WELL SEE
HOW READILY THIS STUFF BLOWS AROUND.

AS FOR HEADLINES...JUSTIFICATION FOR WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS SUNDAYS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WELL...WILL UPGRADE THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES TO A WARNING: MANISTEE/WEXFORD/BENZIE/GD TRAVERSE/KALKASKA/
LEELANAU/ANTRIM/OTSEGO/CHARLEVOIX/EMMET/CHEBOYGAN.  WILL ALSO ADD
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES TO THE WARNING AFTER COORDINATING WITH
MQT.  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH TOMORROW FOR
PRESQUE ISLE/MONTMORENCY/CRAWFORD/MISSAUKEE/ROSCOMMON COUNTIES...AND
AN ADVISORY FOR JUST TONIGHT FOR ALPENA/OSCODA/ALCONA/OGEMAW
COUNTIES MAINLY OUT OF CONCERN THAT THESE LOCALES WILL SEE A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIP AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN (ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE HURON AND HIGHER UP)
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SOME THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER...BUT GIVEN THE COMPLEX FORECAST ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS DID NOT ADD IT IN.  GIVEN EVERYTHING ELSE THAT IS OCCURRING
MORE OF A GEE WHIZ THING THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 357 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND

SUN THRU MON...FOCUS IS OBVIOUSLY ON WHAT WILL BE ONGOING WINTER
STORM THRU SUN EVENING. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING
THE REGION ROUGHLY 12Z...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO SECONDARY AXIS
LIFTING INTO THE REGION 12-18Z...DRIVEN BY HEALTHY 700-500MB
DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROWAL FEATURE/ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. PER UPSTREAM OBS THIS AFTN...WARM NOSE
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERDONE BY 12Z GUIDANCE (NO REAL SURPRISE)...
SUGGESTING MORE OF A MIX THRU MUCH OF THE CWA...WHERE WILL RUN WITH
MORE OF A ZR/PL MENTION TO START THE PERIOD PER PARTIAL THICKNESS
METHOD/MODIFIED FCST RAOBS/SREF PTYPE PLOTS. FAR SOUTHEAST STILL
LOOKS LIKE JUST PLAIN RAIN GIVEN SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE ALOFT AND SFC
TEMP INFLUENCE VIA FLOW OFF THE WATER. ALL THE WHILE...MORE OF A
PLAIN SNOW EVENT FAR NORTH/WEST WHERE COLD AIR SOURCE (ALBEIT NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE) MORE ROBUST. SHOULD THEN SEE PRECIP TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW CWA-WIDE 15Z ONWARD AS THICKNESSES COLLAPSE BACK TOWARD
UPR LOW WITH ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. PER PLACEMENT OF TROWAL
AXIS/BEST DEFORMATION...LOOKS LIKE A FEW INCHES OF VERY WET SNOW
COULD QUICKLY ACCUMULATE IN THE CENTRAL COUNTIES AS THE TRANSITION
OCCURS...AUGMENTED BY EXCELLENT DENDRITIC GROWTH (OMEGA) PROGGED
AROUND THE -15C ISOTHERM. MAY ALSO SEE A SECOND AXIS INTO EASTERN
UPR UNDER BEST DEEP LAYER DEFORMATION...AND FOR THIS REASON WILL
THROW CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES INTO A WARNING AS 6/12HR LOOKS
DOABLE MOST SPOTS. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DWINDLE IN INTENSITY/
COVERAGE THRU THE LATE AFTN/EVENING AS SYSTEM EVER SO SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY...THOUGH WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY THRU THE PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF FAIRLY HEALTHY GRADIENT. QUICK LOOK AT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM
BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH BY LATE
AFTN...PERHAPS STRONGER ALONG THE LAKE MI COAST GIVEN BETTER
OVERWATER INSTABILITY/STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS. ALL IN ALL...NOT
SHAPING UP TO BE MUCH FUN FOR TRAVELERS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

LOOKS LIKE MASSIVE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TAKES HOLD IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM AMPLIFYING OVR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...WILL RUN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S.

LATER PERIODS (TUE THRU SAT)...RATHER ACTIVE PROGRESSION OF WX
SYSTEMS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST AS
MEAN TROUGHING PERSISTS OVR THE CENTRAL CONUS AND VARIOUS PIECES OF
PACIFIC ENERGY DROP INTO THE TROUGH. FIRST ONE LEADS OFF THE TUE/TUE
NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TRACKING AMPLIFIED UPR WAVE INTO MN/WI...WITH WHAT SHOULD BE
OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARCHING THRU THE CWA ROUGHLY 18Z TUE
THRU 06Z WED. OVERALL UPR FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COUPLED WITH PROGGED STRONG
(BUT BRIEF) PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SUPPORTS A BUMP TO
CATEGORICAL POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN GREAT AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND BACKED UP BY 09Z SREF/06Z GEFS MEAN PRECIP PLOTS.
PRECIP WONT LAST LONG IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION BUT SHOULD BE
MEASURABLE. PTYPE APPEARS MAINLY RAIN GIVEN CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT WILL MENTION RA/SN MIX EASTERN UPR WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT
MAY LINGER FOR A TIME INITIALLY. COULD ALSO SEE RAIN BRIEFLY CHANGE
TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR MARCHES BACK IN...BUT PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT IMPINGING ON NORTHERN LOWER QUICKLY FROM THE WEST SHOULD
REALLY TEMPER THAT POSSIBILITY. AFTER THAT...REALLY NOT MUCH TO
SPEAK OF WED/THU TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...SAVE FOR SMALL POTENTIAL OF A FEW INSTABILITY-DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS WED AFTN AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIP
THRU THE REGION.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT STORM POTENTIAL (GOTTA LOVE SPRING
TIME ACTIVE WX) BY FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF FOR ONCE APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER WITH THIS POTENTIAL...SHOWING LITTLE AMPLIFICATION TO NEXT
PACIFIC WAVE COMING ONSHORE INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. 00Z
GFS/GEFS MEAN/DGEX/CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND STICKING TO THEIR
EARLIER SOLUTIONS (AS IS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PER HPC) SHOWING A
MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...COINCIDENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL MID LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN OVR THE EASTERN PACIFIC/CONUS
PER 2 AND 5 DAY MEAN HEIGHT PLOTS. THIS HAS RATHER SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GREAT LAKES AS LATTER SOLUTIONS IMPLY YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE TO ROUND OUT THE WORK
WEEK. AT THIS POINT WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW AS
APPEARS MARGINAL COLD AIR MAY ONCE AGAIN BE AVAILABLE. PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS ONE GIVEN WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM.

LAWRENCE

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 357 PM/

INCREASING WINDS THRU THE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE BUILDING WAVES ON BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON COASTS...WITH GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES JUSTIFIED.
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CORE OF STRONGER WINDS ROLLS THRU THE REGION.
APPEARS THIS PERIOD A GOOD BEST FOR GALES...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SIDE WHERE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS PROGGED TO RESIDE AND
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY THE BEST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 145 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

WINTER STORM HEADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES TO THE TERMINALS...STARTING AFTER 02Z-03Z OR SO AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART...APPEARS AS
IF TVC/PLN WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW OUT OF THIS EVENT...THOUGH
SOME SLEET COULD ALSO FALL AT PLN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST LOW
LEVEL WARM NOSE REACHES. APN FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...AS
PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SNOW...THEN TRANSITION TOWARD MORE
LIQUID THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING OVERNIGHT SO THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EXPECTED
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...WHEN SURFACE SHOULD WARM A LITTLE AND
PUSH PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ018-023-028-033-034.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR MIZ016-017-019>022-025>027-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ024-029-030-035.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ008-
     015.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
291200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
THEN TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
CHANGES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CHANGES TO
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS...AND STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...BEFORE THE SNOW
COMES TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANGES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CHANGES TO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...AND STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ALL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND/OR ICE AT ANY
TIME DURING THIS PERIOD.