Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2009

Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Gaylord, MI

February 26, 200912 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Feb 26, 2009, 4:17 AM EST for 12 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Feb 26, 2009, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 13 hr. 15 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 26, 2009, 4:17 AM EST (09:17 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 26, 2009, 4:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 27, 2009, 4:49 AM EST
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

Counties Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 26, 9:03 PM ESTSNOW 1.57 W Gaylord, MI3 HR TOTAL THRU 9 PM.
Feb 26, 9:39 PM ESTSNOW 21 W Atlanta, MI2 HR TOTAL THRU 9 PM.
Feb 26, 9:39 PM ESTSNOW 2Rogers City, MI2 HR TOTAL THRU 9 PM.
Feb 26, 10:00 PM ESTSNOW 112 Nnw Alpena, MI2 HR TOTAL THRU 10 PM.
Feb 26, 10:00 PM ESTSNOW 1.52 Nw Maple City, MI5 HR TOTAL THRU 10 PM. MIXED RAIN AND SLEET.
Feb 26, 10:00 PM ESTSNOW 1.5Ossineke, MI2 HR TOTAL THRU 10 PM.
Feb 26, 10:15 PM ESTSNOW 3.5Cross Village, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 10 PM.
Feb 26, 11:08 PM ESTSNOW 23 S Gaylord, MI2 HR TOTAL THRU 9 PM. SNOW TURNED TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ROADS HAZARDOUS.
Feb 26, 11:08 PM ESTSNOW 2.53 N Gaylord, MI2 HR TOTAL THRU 9 PM. SNOW TURNED TO FREEZING RAIN. ROADS HAZARDOUS.
Feb 26, 11:35 PM ESTSNOW 1.8Vanderbilt, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 1130 PM. MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.
Feb 26, 11:50 PM ESTSNOW 1.52 Se Mancelona, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 1 AM. ROADWAYS HAZARDOUS DUE TO THICK SLUSH AND ICE.
Feb 26, 11:50 PM ESTSNOW 6Cross Village, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 12 AM.
Feb 26, 11:51 PM ESTSNOW 12 Se Gaylord, MI2 HR TOTAL THRU 9 PM. SNOW CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
Feb 27, 1:32 AM ESTSNOW 1.52 Se Mancelona, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 1 AM. ROADWAYS HAZARDOUS DUE TO THICK SLUSH AND ICE.
Feb 27, 1:32 AM ESTSNOW 7Rogers City, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 5 AM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 00:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2009-02-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2009-02-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 224 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
477 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
224 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
214 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 260917
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
417 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...QUICK HITTING BUT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTERACTING WITH
A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE WITH SIX OR MORE
INCHES OF HEAVY...WET SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE OVER A SHORT DISTANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...ANY SMALL DEVIATION IN EXPECTED
TRACK COULD RESULT IN AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW
PICKING UP HEAVY RAINFALL INSTEAD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH
WILL BE VERY NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW/ICE LINE FOR THIS SYSTEM. BE SURE
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE LATER REFINED.

MIZ036-261030-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.A.0004.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
IOSCO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TAWAS CITY
417 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. 

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING STORM
SYSTEM TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEREFORE
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

MIZ016>028-262300-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0004.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0006.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING
417 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY
3 AM. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH SNOW FALLING AT THE RATE OF 2
INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ008-015-262300-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0004.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
417 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 4
AM. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH SNOW BRIEFLY FALLING AT THE RATE
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE LATE EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ029>035-262300-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0004.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH
417 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ICE
ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED...
FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS
STORM...WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE TIMING OF A CHANGE FROM ICE TO
SNOW DURING THIS STORM. IF THE CHANGEOVER IS SLOWER...MORE
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. IF THE CHANGE OCCURS
MORE QUICKLY...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED 5 INCHES. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

LAWRENCE
6 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 261621
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1121 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...QUICK HITTING BUT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTERACTING WITH
A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE WITH SIX OR MORE
INCHES OF HEAVY...WET SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE OVER A SHORT DISTANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...ANY SMALL DEVIATION IN EXPECTED
TRACK COULD RESULT IN AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW
PICKING UP HEAVY RAINFALL INSTEAD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH
WILL BE VERY NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW/ICE LINE FOR THIS SYSTEM. BE SURE
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AS SNOW AMOUNTS AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE LATER REFINED.

MIZ016>028-270630-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING
1121 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY
3 AM. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH SNOW FALLING AT THE RATE OF
2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ008-015-270630-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1121 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY
4 AM. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH SNOW BRIEFLY FALLING AT THE RATE
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE LATE EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ029>035-270630-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.090226T2100Z-090227T1200Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH
1121 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ICE
ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED...
FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS
STORM...WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE TIMING OF A CHANGE FROM ICE TO
SNOW DURING THIS STORM. IF THE CHANGEOVER IS SLOWER...MORE
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. IF THE CHANGE OCCURS
MORE QUICKLY...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED 5 INCHES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JPB
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 262155
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
455 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...QUICK HITTING BUT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT LATE AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...SPREADING A WIDE
SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRIMARILY
SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN NORTH OF M-72. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR WILL
BE MOSTLY RAIN...WHILE IN BETWEEN WILL BE A STRIP OF MIXED
SNOW...SLEET...AND RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER
A 6 TO 9 HOUR TIME PERIOD...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
INTENSE WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE OVER A SHORT DISTANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...ANY SMALL DEVIATION IN EXPECTED
TRACK COULD RESULT IN AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW
PICKING UP MORE SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR HEAVY RAINFALL
INSTEAD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG THE M-72 CORRIDOR
WHERE SEVERAL PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE POSSIBLE. BE SURE TO MONITOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE VENTURING OUT TONIGHT. 

MIZ033>035-262300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH
455 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

PRECIPITATION ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO
FALL AS RAIN TONIGHT...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH. THEREFORE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

MIZ008-015-271200-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
455 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM. A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME...WITH SNOW BRIEFLY FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR DURING THE LATE EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$

MIZ016>024-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
455 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 3 AM. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SNOW FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ025>028-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING
455 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 3 AM.
SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY AROUND
KALKASKA AND GRAYLING. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...THOUGH AREAS THAT
PICK UP MORE ICE PELLETS WILL SEE LESS TOTAL SNOWFALL. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ029-030-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE
455 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS SNOW AND SLEET...AND
COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING. REGARDLESS...TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.   

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE. IF
SNOW FALLS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
ALSO OCCUR IF RAIN DEVELOPS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ031-032-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC
455 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MANISTEE AND WEXFORD COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...AND MAY CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW OR ALL
SNOW BEFORE ENDING.  TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JPB
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 270119
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
819 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...QUICK HITTING BUT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO AT MID EVENING WILL CROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...SPREADING A WIDE SWATH OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF
M-72. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN...WHILE IN BETWEEN WILL BE A STRIP OF MIXED SNOW...
SLEET...AND RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER
A 6 TO 9 HOUR TIME PERIOD...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
INTENSE WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE OVER A SHORT DISTANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...ANY SMALL DEVIATION IN EXPECTED
TRACK COULD RESULT IN AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW
PICKING UP MORE SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR HEAVY RAINFALL
INSTEAD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG THE M-
72 CORRIDOR WHERE SEVERAL PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE POSSIBLE. BE
SURE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE VENTURING OUT TONIGHT.

MIZ008-015-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
819 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH SNOW
BRIEFLY FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE
LATE EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$

MIZ016>024-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
819 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM. A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME... WITH SNOW FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM... WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ025>028-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING
819 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM.
THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE GREATEST SOUTH OF M-72. 
TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME...THOUGH AREAS THAT PICK UP MORE SLEET WILL SEE
LESS TOTAL SNOWFALL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM... WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ033>035-271200-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH
819 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. ANY MIX WITH SLEET
WILL BE NORTH OF M-55. ICING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. BUT SOME ICY SPOTS ARE
EXPECTED ON AREAS ROADS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH ON ROADS...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS TREE BRANCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN BACK TO
SNOW JUST BEFORE ENDING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ029-030-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE
819 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. ROADS WILL BECOME ICY IN SPOTS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON ROADS...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER ON EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE BRANCHES. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ031-032-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC
819 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. ANY MIX WITH SLEET
WILL BE NORTH OF M-55. ICING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. BUT SOME ICY SPOTS ARE
EXPECTED ON AREAS ROADS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH ON ROADS...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS TREE BRANCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN BACK TO
SNOW JUST BEFORE ENDING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JZ
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 270217
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...QUICK HITTING BUT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO AT MID EVENING WILL CROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...SPREADING A WIDE SWATH OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF M-
72. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN...
WHILE IN BETWEEN WILL BE A STRIP OF MIXED SNOW... SLEET...AND
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. ALTHOUGH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER A 6 TO 9 HOUR TIME
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE OVER A SHORT DISTANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...ANY SMALL DEVIATION IN EXPECTED
TRACK COULD RESULT IN AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW
PICKING UP MORE SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR HEAVY RAINFALL
INSTEAD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG THE M-
72 CORRIDOR WHERE SEVERAL PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE POSSIBLE. BE
SURE TO MONITOR CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE VENTURING OUT TONIGHT.

MIZ008-015-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM. A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SNOW BRIEFLY FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DURING
THE LATE EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$

MIZ016>024-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM. SNOW WILL
MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32. A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 10 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME... WITH SNOW FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR AT TIMES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ025>028-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 4 AM.
THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE GREATEST SOUTH OF M-
72. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...THOUGH AREAS THAT PICK UP MORE SLEET
WILL SEE LESS TOTAL SNOWFALL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM... WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ029-030-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. ROADS WILL BECOME ICY IN SPOTS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON ROADS...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER ON EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE BRANCHES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ031>035-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. ANY MIX WITH SLEET
WILL BE NORTH OF M-55. ICING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. BUT SOME ICY SPOTS
ARE EXPECTED ON AREAS ROADS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH ON ROADS...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE BRANCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN
BACK TO SNOW JUST BEFORE ENDING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JZ
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 270343
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1043 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM TO EXIT LATE TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO LATE THURSDAY EVENING WILL CROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...SPREADING A WIDE SWATH OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. 

MIZ020-025-026-270445-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY
1043 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

RAIN MAY TURN BACK TO LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE WILL BE MINIMAL.

$$

MIZ031-035-270445-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
MANISTEE-OGEMAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANISTEE...WEST BRANCH
1043 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

RAIN MAY TURN BACK TO LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE WILL BE MINIMAL.

$$

MIZ008-015-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1043 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HEAVY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$

MIZ016>018-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
1043 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HEAVY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. SNOW WILL MIX
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-68. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ019-021>024-027-028-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...GRAYLING
1043 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL COME
TO AN END OVERNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO
6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF M-32. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH...HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS
SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ029-030-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE
1043 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. ROADS WILL BECOME ICY IN SPOTS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON ROADS...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER ON EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE BRANCHES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

MIZ032>034-271200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
1043 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ICING
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING. BUT SOME ICY SPOTS ARE EXPECTED ON AREA ROADS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ON ROADS...BUT WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE BRANCHES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MEANS THAT
PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

JZ
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 270949
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
449 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009


MIZ008-015>019-021>024-027-028-271100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...
GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...GRAYLING
449 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 


$$

MIZ029-030-032>034-271100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090227T1200Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
449 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 


$$

ADAM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 26, 3:49 AM EST, 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 26, 3:49 AM EST, 28 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 349 AM/

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BRIEFLY DOMINATES.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LOWER PENINSULA. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN PRIMARILY NORTH OF M-72...AND INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. SOUTH OF M-72...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN IS
EXPECTED...TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

ADAM

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 AM/...TODAY

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM /LITERALLY/ THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...AS
WEAKISH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
INCOMING SYSTEM (THE BIG HEADACHE FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT).
DRIZZLE/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE QUICKLY ON THE WANE EARLY THIS
MORNING GIVEN INFLUX OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...WHICH HAS ALSO
ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO DROP BACK NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. WILL MAKE A
MENTION IN THE HWO OF POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS PER RECENT SPOTTER
CALLS/EARLIER DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE...CLOUD FCST IFFY WITH EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE PICS SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS HANGING TOUGH
BENEATH RATHER STOUT 800MB INVERSION AND FIRMLY PLANTED IN LOW
LEVEL COL REGION AS CWA FALLS FIRMLY IN BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...MAY VERY WELL SEE LOW STRATUS PERSIST IN MANY
SPOTS...THOUGH PROBABLY WITH INCREASING BREAKS THRU THE MORNING.
PRECIP WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR 21Z TIMEFRAME...AND WILL GO
AHEAD AND BUMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD (SEE BELOW FOR MORE).

LAWRENCE

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

ALL SYSTEMS GO FOR A FAST MOVING BUT HARD HITTING WINTER STORM ACRS
THE CWA FROM ROUGHLY 23Z THRU 10Z AS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE (EMERGING
ONTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING) AMPLIFIES ACRS
IA/IL...DRIVING DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FROM WESTERN KS TO NEAR
SAGINAW BAY BY 06Z TONIGHT. TONS OF MOISTURE TO BE HAD WITH THIS
SYSTEM (PWATS PUSHING AN INCH)...OWING TO MODEST PACIFIC TAP AND
BURGEONING GULF INFLUENCE WITH DEEPENING RETURN FLOW FCST TO
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY INTO THE AFTN/EVENING WITH DEVELOPING IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL JET (ON THE ORDER OF 50 KNOTS). MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALREADY
WELL UNDERWAY PER UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING MID 40S DEWPOINTS ALREADY
INTO SOUTHERN IL AS OF 07Z. 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME
INTO GOOD AGREEMENT...AND AS EXPECTED HAS TRENDED HEAVILY TOWARD THE
ECMWF/GGEM SOLUTIONS OF RECENT DAYS...SHOWING PRONOUNCED AXIS OF
700-300MB QG UPWARD FORCING SLIDING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS EVENING.
THE ENTIRE SETUP REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONGLY SLOPED FGEN
SIGNATURE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN REGIONAL CROSS SECTIONS...WITH LIFT OVR
THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION HEAVILY AUGMENTED BY DEEP LAYER OF WEAK
STABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV)...BOTH OF SLANTWISE ORIGIN AS WELL AS
POTENTIALLY JUST PLAIN UPRIGHT ORIGIN AS NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATE
PLUME RUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. ALSO IMPRESSIVE IS DEEP LAYER
AND STRONG NATURE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...SOME 40-50 KNOTS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE SURFACES...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SPELLS LIKELIHOOD OF
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIT
OUT A GENERAL 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF FOR THIS EVENT...PERHAPS
EVEN UNDERDONE ACRS SOUTHEAST PENDING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST WHAT TYPE THE PRECIP WILL TAKE...AS APPEARS
WE WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG WARM NOSE DEVELOPING ACRS THE SOUTHERN
CWA (JUST NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TRACK). KNOWING FULL WELL THAT I WILL
INEVITABLY BE WRONG WITH AT LEAST SOME ASPECT OF THE PRECIP TYPE IN
THIS EVENT...HERE IS MY BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME. M-72 NORTH APPEARS
TO BE THE EASY SIDE OF THINGS...STAYING MAINLY SNOW AS ANY INITIAL
WARM NOSE SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY DEEP OMEGA/DYNAMIC COOLING (THOUGH
PERHAPS A MIX WITH SLEET BRIEFLY UP TO THE M-32 CORRIDOR). FARTHER
SOUTH A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY WITH FCST RAOBS SHOWING MORE OF A
SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX (TRENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH)...THOUGH
CONCERNED FREEZING RAIN MAY ENTER THE PICTURE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE SFC TEMPS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND 31-32F. THAT
SAID...EXPECTED HEAVY PRECIP RATES OF CONCERN FOR ANY FZRA POTENTIAL
AS THIS MAY EASILY OFFSET MARGINAL SFC TEMPS ANYWAY. ALSO COMING
INTO PLAY IS LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH COOLING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW
PASSAGE WHILE HEAVY PRECIP RATES STILL ONGOING. IN ADDITION...SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEEP OMEGA WELL
BELOW THE DGZ AND WARM NATURE OF THE STORM. GUT FEELING IS A SWATH
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF PURE CONCRETE SNOW SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM TRAVERSE CITY TO GAYLORD TO ALPENA...
EXCEPT FOR EASTERN UPPER WHERE APPEARS MORE OF A 3 TO 6 INCH
SNOWFALL ON TAP. TO THE SOUTH MUCH MORE OF A PAIN WITH MIXING
ISSUES...BUT WILL CALL IT 2 TO 5 INCHES ON AVERAGE...CERTAINLY MUCH
LESS ACRS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA (GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO) WHERE MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED. ALL THAT SAID...WILL FIRE OFF WARNINGS ROUGHLY
CENTRAL THIRD OF COUNTIES...BOUNDED BY ADVISORIES ON EITHER SIDE TO
EXCLUDE THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES ABOVE. STILL POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGES AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...SO STAY TUNED.

SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY EXIT THE SCENE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH AN EXPECTED
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING
LOW AND RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPSTREAM 1040MB HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY PROLONG ISSUES FROM THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT.
AFTN HIGHS TO TAKE A HIT WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
A GREAT DRAINAGE FLOW SETUP WITH BUBBLE HIGH BRANCHING INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...AND HAVE THUS UNDERCUT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES (CURRENT READINGS UNDER THE HIGH -20 TO -25F RIGHT NOW).
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER ANEMIC DESPITE MODEST
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...OWING SIMPLY TO DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW. THAT SAID...THERE IS ALWAYS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF LAKE EFFECT AND WILL MAINTAIN GOING CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME. NOT MUCH TIME TO LOOK BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. WILL
PUNT ANY GRID CHANGES WITH THIS TO THE DAY SHIFT.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1145 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS DECK AND AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HANG
OVER ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN...MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG STORM APPROACHES THE
AREA. SNOW/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FURTHER DETERIORATING TO
IFR/LIFR AS HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ008-015-029>035.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MIZ016>028.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 25, 4:22 PM EST, 11 hours 55 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
422 PM EST WED FEB 25 2009

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-261200-
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-
ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
422 PM EST WED FEB 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND/OR ICE
AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

JPB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 26, 4:17 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryAPXAlcona, Manistee, Missaukee, Ogemaw, Oscoda, Roscommon and 1 more25 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2009Every winter storm warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.