Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 131025
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
525 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON...

.A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS SNOW
WILL GET ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT
WILL PULL ARCTIC AIR DOWN ACROSS THE STATE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. THE RESULT OF THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AREAS
OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. IN
ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW
WIND CHILLS...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.

MIZ026-140000-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TRAVERSE CITY
525 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND LOW WIND
CHILLS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY LATE
TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...AND SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LOCALIZED NEAR WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS OF NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE
EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ020-025-031-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
525 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY LATE
TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...AND SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LOCALIZED NEAR WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS OF NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE
EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ016-019-021-032-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
EMMET-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...
CADILLAC
525 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE BRISK
WINDS...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

$$

MIZ017-018-022>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-
CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
525 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE BRISK
WINDS...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

$$

MIZ008-015-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
525 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE BRISK
WINDS...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

$$

AS

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 131612
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1112 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

MIZ015>018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042-131715-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-
CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...
ROGERS CITY...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...
GLADWIN...STANDISH
1112 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END. IN ITS
WAKE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER ONLY SCATTERED
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
MANISTEE
1112 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. HOWEVER...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY
30 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AS WELL AS
LOWER WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW ZERO. LOCALIZED NEAR
WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE
EXTREME CAUTION.

$$

MIZ019-021-027-032-033-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-KALKASKA-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...KALKASKA...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1112 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO
LOCALLY 3 INCHES EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AS WELL AS
LOWER WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW ZERO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

$$

MIZ008-140000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
1112 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TARGETING LOCATIONS PRIMARILY WEST OF M-123 WITH A
FRESH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. HOWEVER...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
WILL PERSIST COUNTY WIDE...AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH CONTINUE...ALSO LOWERING WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
BELOW ZERO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

$$

LAWRENCE

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 132119
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
419 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

MIZ020-025-026-031-132230-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
MANISTEE
419 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY AN INCH OR
LESS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...
BRINGING AN END TO LINGERING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THUS THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

MIZ008-019-021-027-032-033-132230-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090114T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-KALKASKA-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...CHARLEVOIX...
MANCELONA...KALKASKA...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
419 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY
AN INCH OR LESS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO LINGERING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

LAWRENCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

A STORM SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

AJS/MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 958 PM/...TONIGHT

AN INTERESTING 24 HOURS AHEAD. 1013MB LOW IN FAR EASTERN IOWA...WITH
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE W AND NW EDGE...PRODUCING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN. SNOW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MI. SOME LAKE-
ENHANCED ELEMENTS IN WEAK SW/WSW ARE NOTED OVER LAKE MI. THESE ARE
MOVING OVER THE COAST IN THE IMMEDIATE CVX AREA...BETWEEN HARBOR
SPRINGS AND GOOD HART...AND PERHAPS THE LEELANAU COASTLINE NORTH OF
LELAND.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI
LATE TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY. THANKFULLY...THE
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH. OUR
COASTLINES WILL CERTAIN GET WINDY...LAKE MI LATE TONIGHT AND HURON
IN THE MORNING...BUT BLIZZARD-TYPE CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IN
THE CARDS. SOME GUSTS AROUND 40MPH IN THE MOST EXPOSED LOCATIONS
SEEMS REASONABLE.

CURRENT SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE A FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED ITEM.
SURFACE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS THE LAKE AS SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SW GETS ORGANIZED AND MOVES EAST. NW SURFACE WINDS ALREADY OBSERVED
ON THE OPPOSITE SHORE...AND 00Z NAM SAYS WINDS WILL BE VEERING NW
(THOUGH STILL LIGHT) AT 06Z/1AM. WILL NEED TO BUMP UP SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT IN THE LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY REGION.

THE SW ZONES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF TVC/CAD...SHOULD STILL HAVE THE
BETTER SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT. SNOW IS JUST GETTING STARTED DOWN
THERE...BUT THE COAST FROM LEELANAU SOUTHWARD WILL STILL GET LAKE
ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT...EVEN AS WINDS VEER N/NNE AFTER 06Z (AND
STRENGTHEN QUITE A BIT)...AND THE COLD AIR COMES POURING IN.

FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL
REORIENT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SW A BIT...LOWERING FOR MBL/CAD AND
RAISING FOR LEELANAU. WE MIGHT ALSO BE JUST A HAIR QUICK TO BRING
THE COLD AIR IN...AND WILL BUMP UP 12Z A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ACTUAL
MIN TEMPS MIGHT BE A DEGREE TOO COLD.

WHICH JUST LEAVES THE WHOLE HEADLINE QUESTION...SPECIFICALLY WHETHER
THIS COMBINATION OF ELEMENTS JUSTIFIES A WINTER STORM WARNING
ANYWHERE. LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE ARE THE GREATEST CONCERN...AND
JUST DON/T FEEL GOOD AT ALL LEAVING THEM IN AN ADVISORY. WE ALSO
JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE PAST HOUR IN
WELLSTON. THESE COUNTIES WILL HAVE BOTH THE MOST SNOW AND THE MOST
WIND FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH IS A POTENT COMBINATION.

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND

WELL ADVERTISED AND MUCH TALKED ABOUT ARCTIC PLUNGE BEGINNING ITS
RAPID SOUTHWARD JOURNEY BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT IS JUST
ABOUT READY TO CROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WITH READINGS WELL
BELOW ZERO NORTH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS (ON THE ORDER OF -15F TO
-30F). THIS...COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND GUSTY WIND
PRODUCING LEAD WAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WHAT IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY ACTIVE TRUE CLIPPER REGIME THROUGH THE
DURATION...REMAINS TOP RUNG ON THE FORECAST PRIORITY STEP LADDER FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TUESDAY...ARCTIC INTRUSION ENTERS WITH A VENGEANCE BEHIND DEPARTING
CLIPPER SYSTEM AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORTS MERGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE MORNING. AS SYSTEM SNOW EXITS STAGE
RIGHT...ONGOING NORTH TO NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
TARGET THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AS DELTA T/S JUMP TO THE MID
20S CELSIUS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID 20S
CELSIUS. DESPITE EXCELLENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY...QUICK WITHDRAW
OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SUPPORT...COUPLED WITH SUB 800MB INVERSION
LEVELS AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH PARAMETERS AS DGZ
GOES SUB CLOUD LEVEL SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
MINIMAL...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT FRESH
POWDER WILL EASILY BE BLOWN ABOUT BY GUSTY NNW WINDS DURING THE
MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH WIND CHILL VALUES PLUMMETING INTO THE
-10F TO -20F RANGE... NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE DAY ALL AREAS. EXPECT THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PIVOT TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO TARGET THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS OF BOTH PENINSULAS
DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH
RAPID DRYING NOTED ABOVE 850MB INVERSION AND SMALL FLAKE GROWTH IN
INCREASINGLY COLD REGIME. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK OVERNIGHT AND GO
LIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER. GIVEN COLD AIRMASS...COULD
SEE RATHER VIGOROUS LAND BREEZE RESPONSE...WHICH COULD SET THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE INDUCED MESOLOWS. OF COURSE...PINPOINTING EXACT
PLACEMENT RATHER FUTILE AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME INDICATION BY
HI-RES GUIDANCE OF A RATHER PRONOUNCED MESOLOW FORMING IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THESE FEATURES AS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONES MORE THAN
CAPABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IF THE PIVOT INLAND. AS FOR
THOSE TEMPERATURES...MID AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES SHORELINES. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE FLOW FROM ONTARIO...WHICH COULD REALLY
PLUMMET EASTERN UPPER READINGS. HAVE TENTATIVELY SIDED WITH THIS
SCENARIO...DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
THE MIGHTY MAC (WHICH MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO CONSERVATIVE).

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEXT IN ENDLESS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR SLICES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF BETTER
DYNAMICS/SURFACE LOW...WITH LATEST NAM-WRF MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE AND SOLID SNOWPACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BELIEVE SOUTHERN ROUTE IS THE WAY TO GO...AND EXPECT
SURFACE LOW TO CUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SNOWPACK. THIS PATH WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO OUR SOUTH. STILL...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON
ENHANCEMENT...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...AS WINDS GO EAST/NORTHEAST AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -20C. WILL CARRY A GENERAL INCH OR
TWO MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPWARDS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE. MUCH LIKE TUESDAY...SYSTEM SNOW EXITS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY NORTH FLOW LAKE EFFECT TOWARDS
MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE GOING FULL BORE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN NW (THURSDAY) TO WNW/W (FRIDAY) FAVORED AREAS
AS COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE MID 20S CELSIUS. EXTREME OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY ...COINCIDENT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE GOOD INVERSION
DEPTHS AND REMNANT MOISTURE PROFILES THROUGH PRELIMINARY LOOK AT
MODEL DERIVED POINT SOUNDINGS...WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SUB CLOUD BASE WITH SUCH COLD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. THUS...STILL THINKING LOW END SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
THE RULE...ON THE ORDER OF 10/15 TO 1...WITH MORE OF A HIGH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTING/LOW ACCUMULATING TALCUM POWDER TYPE SNOW.
OF COURSE...SURE DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY AMOUNT TO
SEVERAL INCHES IN FAVORED AREAS...WITH EVENTUALLY NEED OF ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO COVER ACCUMULATIONS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AS A
SIDE NOTE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY DID REVEAL A
COMPLETELY FROZEN OVER GREEN BAY WITH SOME FLOATING ICE OVER MID
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...A NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED WIDESPREAD ICE
THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH LAST WEEK VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING WHAT APPEARED TO BE EXTENSIVE PANCAKE ICE FORMATION
NORTH OF BEAVER ISLAND STRONGLY SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
BEAVER ISLAND TO THE STRAITS IS ESSENTIALLY ICE COVERED. FULLY
EXPECT TO SEE SOME EFFECTS OF THIS...WITH REDUCED SNOWFALL INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE DOWNWIND OF THIS ICE COVER. MUCH TAMER AWAY FROM THE
TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS...WITH JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BIGGER STORY PROBABLY CENTERED ON
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (A LITTLE
WARMER NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE) AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WELL BELOW ZERO.

REST OF THE FORECAST (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL ON BOARD FOR A SIGNIFICANT RELAXATION WITH THE
COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL RIDGE AXIS SUCCUMBS TO PACIFIC ENERGY...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING INLAND AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT BECOMING SQUASHED. THIS
SHOULD PUSH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR UP INTO NORTHEAST
CANADA...ALLOWING A RARE NORTHWEST FLOW WAA REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE
LAKES REGION. GROUND HUGGING ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INITIALLY BE HARD
TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT SEE NO REASON HIGHS
WILL NOT PUSH WELL INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY AND 20S TO THE LOWER 30S
BY MONDAY (PRETTY TOASTY...HUH). DESPITE THE OVERALL
RELAXATION...THE PATTERN REMAINS AN ACTIVE ONE AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS
DROP SOUTHEAST UNDER MAINTENANCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. OF
COURSE...TIMING AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE RATHER SUSPECT...BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS PROG FIRST SUCH SYSTEM SATURDAY... WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE
MONDAY?. SOME GOOD NEWS FOR THE SNOW-WEARY... MODIFYING AIRMASS AND
WHAT SHOULD BE COLDEST OF THE SEASON LAKE WATERS (MAYBE SOME PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVER?) SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN CHECK.

MSB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...UNTIL AN
ARCTIC FRONT DROPS INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WHITEFISH BAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING NEAR THE SAG BAY NEAR
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS TO
AROUND 35...POSSIBLY 40 KTS TO MANY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SURROUNDING LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.

SMD

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 641 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. LIGHT SNOW WILL
EXPAND INTO PLN/TVC THIS EVENING...AND APN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH
IFR VSBYS BECOMING THE PREVAILING CONDITION. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
KICK IN VERY LATE TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SE
LOWER MI. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TOWARD SUNSET. WITH VERY COLD NNW LOW LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT AT TVC (IFR EXPECTED)...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW AT
PLN/APN.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-
     015>019-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-
     341.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ342-344>346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-
     346-349.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ347-348.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
140000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
349 PM EST MON JAN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHEN A STORM
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PLOW THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING ARCTIC AIR...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...AND LOW WIND CHILLS. PLEASE SEE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS. PLEASE SEE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SET ITS SIGHTS ON PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL
BE ABLE TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW AND LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW TO THE REGION.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...BOTH LAND AND MARINE...PLEASE RELAY SNOW...WIND AND
VISIBILITY REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MSB