Alert archive / Michigan / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2009
Lake Effect Snow Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this lake effect snow warning at Jan 15, 2009, 4:52 AM EST for Antrim County, Kalkaska County, Michigan. It was in force for 31 hr. 7 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 15, 2009, 4:52 AM EST (09:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 16, 2009, 11:50 AM EST
- In force
- 31 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
Counties Antrim County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 8:06 AM EST | SNOW 4 | 5 Se Mancelona, MI | 12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 28 IN. |
| Jan 15, 3:20 PM EST | SNOW 4 | Bear Lake, MI | 7 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM. |
| Jan 15, 7:05 PM EST | SNOW 4 | 5 Se Mancelona, MI | 12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM. SNOWDEPTH 31 IN. |
| Jan 16, 6:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 7 | 9 Ne Kalkaska, MI | 12HR TOTAL ENDING 6 AM. TWIN LAKES AREA OF NORTHEAST KALKASKA COUNTY. |
| Jan 16, 6:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 8 | Mancelona, MI | 12 HR TOTAL ENDING 6 AM. |
| Jan 16, 8:57 AM EST | SNOW 4 | 5 Sse Mancelona, MI | 12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOWDEPTH 31 IN. |
| Jan 16, 10:04 AM EST | SNOW 5.5 | Alba, MI | 24 HR TOTAL THRU 9 AM. SNOWDEPTH 25 IN. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 216 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1025 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -73 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -5 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS43 KAPX 150952 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 452 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... ...BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING... .LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN TODAY...AND WILL BRING ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. MIZ027-160000- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0002.090115T0952Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090115T1600Z/ KALKASKA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...KALKASKA 452 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO KALKASKA COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...BUNDLE UP AND WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ021-160000- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0002.090115T0952Z-090116T1200Z/ ANTRIM- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MANCELONA 452 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO ANTRIM COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ022-028-032-033-160000- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.090115T0952Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090115T1600Z/ OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...GRAYLING...CADILLAC... LAKE CITY 452 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...BUNDLE UP AND WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ008-160000- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.090115T2100Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090115T1600Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 452 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SNOW MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-28 TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING WILL RUN FROM 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...BUNDLE UP AND WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ019-020-025-026-031-160000- /O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.090115T0952Z-090116T1200Z/ CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT... TRAVERSE CITY...MANISTEE 452 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ015>018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-151600- /O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090115T1600Z/ MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA- ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN... ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE... HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 452 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL DROP WIND CHILL VALUES TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...BUNDLE UP AND WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ JPB
4 follow-up statements
000 WWUS43 KAPX 151624 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1124 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... .LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN TODAY...AND WILL BRING ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. MIZ027-160630- /O.EXP.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090115T1600Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ KALKASKA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...KALKASKA 1124 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO KALKASKA COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ022-028-032-033-160630- /O.EXP.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090115T1600Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...GRAYLING...CADILLAC... LAKE CITY 1124 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ008-160630- /O.EXP.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090115T1600Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.090115T2100Z-090116T1200Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1124 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SNOW MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY ALONG AND NORTH OF M- 28 TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ015>018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-151730- /O.EXP.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090115T1600Z/ MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA- ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN... ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE... HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 1124 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. $$ MIZ021-160630- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ ANTRIM- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MANCELONA 1124 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO ANTRIM COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ019-020-025-026-031-160630- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT... TRAVERSE CITY...MANISTEE 1124 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ JL
000 WWUS43 KAPX 160343 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1043 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... .LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAVORED SNOWBELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. MIZ033-161200- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.090116T0343Z-090116T1200Z/ MISSAUKEE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE CITY 1043 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ MIZ021-027-161200- /O.NEW.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.090116T0343Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ ANTRIM-KALKASKA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA 1043 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 4 TO 8 INCHES SINCE THURSDAY MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ MIZ019-020-022-025-026-028-031-032-161200- /O.NEW.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.090116T0343Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-CRAWFORD- MANISTEE-WEXFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...GAYLORD... FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC 1043 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ MIZ008-161200- /O.NEW.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.090116T0343Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1043 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY TONIGHT. SNOW MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-28 TONIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS WHITEFISH POINT BY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 5 TO 8 INCHES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ MIZ015>018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-161200- /O.NEW.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.090116T0343Z-090116T1200Z/ MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA- ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN... ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE... HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 1043 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$
000 WWUS43 KAPX 160839 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 339 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...MORE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY... .LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAVORED SNOWBELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH A WEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. MIZ021-027-161700- /O.CAN.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1700Z/ ANTRIM-KALKASKA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA 339 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND PUSH FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. $$ MIZ019-020-022-025-026-028-031-032-161700- /O.CAN.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1700Z/ CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-CRAWFORD- MANISTEE-WEXFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...GAYLORD... FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC 339 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ008-162245- /O.CAN.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1200Z/ /O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090117T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 339 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF BRIMLEY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT BACK ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. $$ MIZ015>018-023-024-029-030-033>036-041-042-161700- /O.EXT.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1700Z/ MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA- ALCONA-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN... ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...LAKE CITY... HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 339 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ KAS
000 WWUS43 KAPX 161650 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1150 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 MIZ021-027-161800- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1700Z/ ANTRIM-KALKASKA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA 1150 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. $$ MIZ019-020-022-025-026-028-031-032-161800- /O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1700Z/ CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-OTSEGO-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-CRAWFORD- MANISTEE-WEXFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...GAYLORD... FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC 1150 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. $$ MIZ015>018-023-024-029-030-033>036-041-042-161800- /O.CAN.KAPX.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090116T1700Z/ MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA- ALCONA-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. IGNACE...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN... ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...HARRISVILLE...LAKE CITY... HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 1150 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. $$ MIZ008-162300- /O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090117T0000Z/ CHIPPEWA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE 1150 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING WEST OF BRIMLEY. BUT ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BIGGEST IMPACT WILL COME FROM VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. IF TRAVELING...SLOW DOWN AND GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. $$ ADAM
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Jan 15, 4:31 AM EST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 15, 4:31 AM EST, 21 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
431 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 431 AM/
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
WITHIN THE COLD AIR MASS. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DROP QUICKLY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...WHICH MAY
SPREAD MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MI DEPENDING ON THE
SYSTEM TRACK.
JPB
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 431 AM/...TODAY
MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE 1048MB ARCTIC HIGH
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN WELL INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MN. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PA/WV. AN
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWEST FROM THIS LOW BACK ACROSS
LAKE HURON/FAR EASTERN UPPER MI/SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...SPREADING WHAT APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID/HIGH CLOUD ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS ONTARIO NOT SHOWING
ANY RETURNS WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE OFF LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN IN NORTHWEST FLOW...850MB
TEMPERATURE OFF 00Z APX SOUNDING AT -22C. LAKE EFFECT ISSUES AND
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR TODAY.
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR... DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO ENHANCING TROUGH
AXIS LYING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AND HAS PUSHED MOST OF THE LES
ACTIVITY INTO LUCE/WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO PUSH SNOW BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY. EXACT MORPHOLOGY IS IN
QUESTION AS SURFACE FLOW WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT SQUIRRELLY FOR A BIT
TODAY...SO ITS UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE SEE ACTUAL BANDING INITIALLY OR
MORE DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY (OR PERHAPS MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT).
EVENTUALLY EXPECT MORE BANDING BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING
(MORE ON THAT BELOW). DEEP MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR MASS
OVER THE LAKE AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY (INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND
750MB/LAKE INDUCED CAPE AROUND 1100J/KG)...WHICH SHOULD OFFSET LACK
OF DENDRITIC FLAKE GROWTH TO SOME DEGREE (850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-26C). WILL LIMIT EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS TODAY TO 1-3 INCHES AROUND
NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...FLOW SETTING UP AROUND 300 DEGREES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT ON THIS. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON LAKE SUPERIOR (JUST A BIT
WARMER AT 850MB)...LAKE INDUCED CAPE STILL WELL ABOVE 1000J/KG BY
AFTERNOON. SHORTER ICE COVERED FETCH EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT...WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST LOWER WHERE WILL CARRY
UP TO FOUR INCHES.
SNOW HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED...MORE ON THAT BELOW.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO (PROBABLY REMAINING BELOW ZERO OVER FAR EASTERN UPPER). WIND
CHILLS ARE RUNNING SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL LET IT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...ITS CLOSE ENOUGH AND ITS COLD.
JPB
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 431 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
TONIGHT...LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT...CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY MEETS UP WITH STRONG FOCUSED CONVERGENCE TONIGHT...
IMPLYING A NICE SNOW BAND IMPACTING NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND
LIKELY REACHING EASTWARD INTO THE SOO REGION. DRAINAGE FLOW MAY
KICK IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE DECENT
(AROUND 15KTS) MAY NOT BE ENOUGH GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR OVER
ONTARIO. IF THIS OCCURS SNOW BAND MAY EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED
SOUTHWARD AND/OR BECOME MORE FOCUSED INTO LUCE COUNTY. AGAIN THE
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THE COLD TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER AND LACK OF A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. A TOUGH CALL...BUT GIVEN THE QPF POTENTIAL WILL RUN
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. HAVE COORDINATED A LAKE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY WITH MQT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT (MQT ADVISORY WILL RUN LONGER)...THOUGH QUITE
CONCEIVABLE THAT A WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.
LAKE MICHIGAN...INSTABILITY STILL VERY GOOD OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...DROPPING OFF JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION
DROPS TOWARD 800MB. FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN PRETTY STEADY IN THE
290-300 DEGREE RANGE...SO THINK ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON
(MAX AROUND 4 INCHES EAST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY). SIMILAR TO
CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES FOR
CHARLEVOIX/OTSEGO/LEELANAU/BENZIE/GD TRAVERSE/CRAWFORD/MANISTEE/
WEXFORD/MISSAUKEE...AND A WARNING FOR ANTRIM/KALKASKA WHERE STRONGER
CONVERGENCE MAY FOCUS HEAVIER QPF POTENTIAL. HEADLINES FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER WILL START AT ZONE ISSUANCE THIS MORNING...AND RUN
THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRIDAY...MORE LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE A
COUPLE INCHES IN SPOTS...THOUGH SHIFTING WINDS AND DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY/DRYING SHOULD BEING TO IMPACT INTENSITY. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO NEXT CLIPPER WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT DROPS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND LOOKS TO SPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOWS INTO NORTHERN MI
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS ON THE CHANCY SIDE AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS SYSTEM TRACK STILL HAS AN ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY.
SUSPECT TREND WITH UPPER WAVE/SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE STRONGER...
AND POSSIBLY DISPLACED FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/UKMET
CONSENSUS TRACK.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT.
JPB
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 431 AM/
TOUGH CALL ON MARINE ISSUES TODAY...WITH A GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT WITH DEEP MIXING OVER THE WATER
WITH 20-30KT WINDS WITHIN CBL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY IN
PLACE WITHIN MANISTEE-GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ZONES MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT WITHIN NORTHERN LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE ZONES WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
JPB
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1140 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS
NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIME TO CONTINUE TONIGHT... PRIMARILY
TARGETING KTVC FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK
MORE W/NW THURSDAY...BRINGING MVFR PRODUCING STRATO-CU DECK BACK
INTO BOTH KPLN AND KAPN. STILL THINKING ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO KTVC FOR THE DURATION.
MSB
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ019-020-
022-025-026-028-031>033.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-
015>018-022>024-027>030-032>036-041-042.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ021-027.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR LHZ346.
LS...NONE.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 14, 4:36 PM EST, 12 hours 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 436 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 151100- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 436 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. SEE ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR DETAILS. PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT PRODUCING PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WIND CHILL READINGS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. SEE ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR DETAILS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WHITEFISH POINT AREA IN WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR TEMPERATURES AT ANY TIME. ADAM
The office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 4:52 AM EST | Lake Effect Snow Advisory | APX | Benzie, Crawford, Grand Traverse, Leelanau, Manistee, Missaukee and 2 more | 36 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Michigan, 2009Every lake effect snow warning in 2009
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.