Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
704 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.AVIATION...
PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE KAMA AND KDHT TAF SITES.
APPEARS STORMS NEAR KAMA WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE TAF SITE...SO
MENTIONED VCTS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...STORMS SPREADING WEST INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR KDHT THROUGH
04Z OR SO. NOT CONFIDENT THAT KGUY WILL EXPERIENCE ANY STORMS THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 04Z AND
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITHIN THE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A SOUTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WITH ANY
PRECIP EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. MY APOLOGIES FOR THE LATE
AFD AND TAFS.

JJB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES
SO UPDATED PACKAGE TO REFLECT THAT. THINKING THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MAY SUPPORT A GREATER WIND THREAT FOR THE WEST...WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE IN THE EAST LEADING TO A GREATER HAIL THREAT. ALTHOUGH THIS
CERTAINLY DOES NOT RULE OUT HAIL FOR THE WEST...OR WINDS IN THE EAST
FOR THAT MATTER.

JJB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ALLOWING A MAINLY WEST FLOW ALOFT.
PLENTY OF ENERGY IN PLACE WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES...WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION ACROSS THE EAST.
MORNING SOUNDING AT KAMA SHOWED SOME SHEAR...AND THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATED MARGINAL SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT HIGH
BASED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN RACING EAST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE. THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND THE SW
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS. SO THINKING HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG WITH UNSTABLE
AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WHICH WARRANT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT WARM AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE WEST
AND CENTRAL ZONES BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO PUSH BACK
INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE INITIATED STORMS. COLD FRONT STILL
ON TRACK FOR MONDAY...BUT MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
COLD AIRMASS. SO THINKING HIGHS IN THE 80S ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THINKING THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 590 HIGH IN PLACE BY TUESDAY. CONCERNED THAT THE
HIGH WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO KEEP PRECIP AT BAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
YET WHEN THE BEST SHOT AT STORMS WOULD BE IN THE EXTENDED. SO
CURRENTLY LEFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY. GFS HINTS AT A SHORT WAVE
PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW.

JJB

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN A DRYLINE WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDE WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PANHANDLES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT PRECIPITATION
MAY PREVENT THE FIRE DANGER RATING FROM REACHING RED FLAG LEVELS. A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

14/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-061100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.

IN ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...BOATERS ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

FOR SATURDAY...DRY...WARM AND WINDY WEATHER COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

NUNEZ

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