Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
322 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE KAMA RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL THIS EVENING SO THE CONVECTION
INITIATING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE
MONITORED USING SURROUNDING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A
SUITABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
THE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO DRIFT INTO THE PANHANDLES AS
WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY HIGH BASED HAIL AND WIND THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING THE NW
FLOW WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AND SET UP OVER THE PANHANDLES
TOMORROW...WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. SO NOT EXPECTING THIS RIDGE TO
SHUT DOWN PRECIP CHANCES. IN FACT...THE NAM SUGGESTS A WEAK WAVE WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES AND GENERATE A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WILL HELP WITH THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC WARMING THOUGH. MODELS SUGGEST 850 MB TEMPS WILL
STEADILY RISE ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW 31C 850MB TEMPS ON
SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. SO THE BIG QUESTION WILL
CONCERN THE EASTERN PUSH OF THE DRYLINE. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS...NAM AND EURO THAT THE DRYLINE
WILL GENERALLY SET UP ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER WITH
OKLAHOMA. THIS SEEMS FINE CONSIDERING THE SUGGESTED STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SET UP DIRECTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLES...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW ALOFT. SO...DECIDED TO
TREND WITH THE MET TEMPS...WHICH WERE 5 OR SO DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MAV. THE NAM DOES PRODUCE PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH MAY POSE A THREAT FOR THE EXTREME SE TEXAS PANHANDLE
BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLES PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY COOLER
ATMOSPHERE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO ENTER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE
SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING THE TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS THEN LEAN TOWARD ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND DRYLINE SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH COULD
BRING A RETURN OF THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER.

JJB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY WITH THE HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE EXTREME
EASTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY ALLOWING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES. AT THE SAME TIME...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR GREATER LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                58  89  62  94  63 /  40  20  20   5  10
BEAVER OK                  57  91  63 100  62 /   5  10  10  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              56  91  60  95  59 /  40  10  10   5  10
BORGER TX                  62  94  67  98  67 /  30  20  20   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              58  96  64  98  61 /  40  20  10   5  10
CANYON TX                  56  92  61  95  61 /  40  20  10   5  10
CLARENDON TX               58  89  65  97  69 /  30  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 55  92  57  97  56 /  40  10  10   5  10
GUYMON OK                  59  94  61 100  61 /  20  10  10   5  10
HEREFORD TX                59  93  62  95  60 /  40  20  10   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                59  91  66 100  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
PAMPA TX                   60  91  66  96  67 /  20  20  20   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                61  90  67  94  70 /  20  20  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              60  91  67  95  72 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

08/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-051100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
300 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES UNTIL 10
PM CDT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ON THESE DAYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...DRY AIR...WARMER WEATHER...AND INCREASING WINDS COULD
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST UPDATES FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

NUNEZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
525 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             1 NE DUMAS              35.87N 101.95W
06/04/2009  E1.00 INCH       MOORE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA01424

SMB/SD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
539 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2009

TXZ012-017-042315-
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
539 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS RANDALL AND POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 537 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF AMARILLO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF AMARILLO
INCLUDING HIGHWAY 60 AND INTERSTATE 40. HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY. PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

KIMBLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
541 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             5 E DUMAS               35.86N 101.88W
06/04/2009  E0.75 INCH       MOORE              TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA01425

SMB/SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             2 NW WILDORADO          35.24N 102.27W
06/04/2009  E0.75 INCH       OLDHAM             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA01426

SMB/SD