Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1145 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST...SO
WILL EXPECT ANY STORMS TO STAY TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
RETURN TO THE DHT TAF SITE BY ISSUANCE TIME AND TO THE GUY TAF SITE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM DRY AIR RUSHES NORTHWARD. BUT...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE GUY TAF SITE TOWARD SUNRISE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT AND A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE ISSUE WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE
DRYLINE WILL SET UP A BIT FURTHER WEST TODAY AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AFFECT KGUY AND KAMA. THE FRONT COULD ADD ANOTHER FOCUS TO STORMS
LATER TODAY.

WYNNE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MANY FORECAST CONCERNS AGAIN THIS MORNING RANGING FROM
CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES TO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING
70 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF MEAN
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN
TX BY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NM NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI/MI.
SURFACE OBS INDICATE THIS FRONT HAS STARTED TO LIFT NORTH...AND
EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS LOW FURTHER DEEPENS
TODAY. DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EASTWARD...REACHING THE EASTERN
TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY
ADVANCING WAVE/DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE TODAY. THETA-E
RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY NOT AN ISSUE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING AROUND 2500 J/KG. IN ADDITION 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN TX INTO EASTERN OK WHICH WILL PROVIDE STRONG
BULK SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS...EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TODAY.

ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. FRONT WILL
EXTEND INTO THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING WAVE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
VORT MAX.

TUESDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE
BOOSTED POPS UP DURING THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH NEXT
WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME QUESTION ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL HOWEVER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG INVERSION
WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTING INTO
NORTHERN TX. ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT...IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE LEE
TROUGH SETS UP IN EASTERN CO/NM THURSDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WILL REBOUND FROM COOLER 60S AND 70S EARLIER IN
THE WEEK TO MID/UPPER 80S. BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP CHANCES. FOR NOW LEFT FRIDAY ON DRY.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
DRYLINE WILL MIX TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATER TODAY. BEHIND THE
DRYLINE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ADDITION MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH 20 FOOT WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH....PROMOTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED MONDAY
DUE TO LIGHTER 20 FOOT WINDS... ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. INCREASING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

16/15

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