Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLID INTO THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING QUITE A CONTRAST IN TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE TOP OF THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE
LIFT. PER THE 12Z RAOB DATA...A 100KT JET STREAK WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PANHANDLES FAVORABLY POSITIONED IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. COMBINED WITH THE FORCING AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS...LIFT HAS ALLOWED THE
INSTABILITY SUGGESTED BY THE MORNING ACCAS FIELD TO BE REALIZED. THE
FIRST SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED RECENTLY IN NORTHWEST OK
WHERE TEMPS HAVE APPROACHED 100 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO HANG UP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE
MODELS WANT TO MIX THIS BOUNDARY OUT FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS
IDEA WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE UNDERCUT IN
THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEE TROF SHARPENS AND ENHANCES LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BY MONDAY EVENING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /IN ADDITION TO
THE DIURNAL MOUNTAIN STORMS/ WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO
DIVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL SUPPORT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL EXISTING
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH/EAST BY THIS TIME. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY AND
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH PEAK
HEATING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DAYTIME POPS WERE RETAINED OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. GFS BUFKIT DATA INDICATES AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WITH DECENT HODOGRAPHS SO SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ALSO...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS
TIME.

JOHNSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS WITH 20FT WIND
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING.

JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                68  93  69  92  66 /  20  30  20  20  30
BEAVER OK                  69  95  68  91  66 /  20  30  40  20  30
BOISE CITY OK              64  90  62  90  63 /  20  30  40  20  30
BORGER TX                  73  97  72  93  70 /  20  30  30  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              68  95  68  93  67 /  20  30  30  20  30
CANYON TX                  67  94  68  93  65 /  20  30  20  20  30
CLARENDON TX               72  98  70  94  69 /  10  20  20  20  30
DALHART TX                 64  93  64  91  63 /  20  30  30  20  30
GUYMON OK                  67  95  67  92  66 /  20  30  40  20  30
HEREFORD TX                66  92  66  93  64 /  20  30  20  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                71  95  69  92  66 /  20  30  40  20  30
PAMPA TX                   70  95  70  91  68 /  20  30  30  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                73  98  71  94  68 /  10  10  30  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              74  99  73  97  69 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

24/02

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-101100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND MOST OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT FORM MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
433 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

TXZ008-012-013-092200-
HUTCHINSON TX-POTTER TX-CARSON TX-
433 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR CARSON...POTTER AND
HUTCHINSON COUNTIES.

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRITCH TO 20
MILES WEST OF PANTEX...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
444 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             8 N PERRYTON            36.51N 100.80W
08/09/2009  E0.75 INCH       BEAVER             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900151

NUNEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
452 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE PERRYTON          36.41N 100.75W
08/09/2009  M58 MPH          OCHILTREE          TX   AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900152

NUNEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
535 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

OKZ003-TXZ005-092300-
BEAVER OK-LIPSCOMB TX-
535 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR LIPSCOMB AND BEAVER
COUNTIES.

AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF ELMWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SJOHNSON