Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AMA TAF SITE BY THE TIME THIS
FORECAST GOES INTO EFFECT. THEREFORE...SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD RETURN TO DHT BY MID EVENING AND THEN TO GUY AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS A NEW DRYLINE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THINK THEY WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GUY AND AMA TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM ADRIAN TO LAKE TANGLEWOOD TO
CLAUDE TO MCLEAN TO ALLISON. A DRYLINE EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT ALONG THE ARMSTRONG AND DONLEY COUNTY LINE. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR GROOM BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT AND
COOLER AIR MOVING ALOFT SHOULD HELP SOME STORMS TO BECOME SUPER CELLS
WITH A CHANCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND A NEW DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO ALONG A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS EVEN STRONGER SHEAR INTERACTS WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. BUT THINK THE DYNAMICS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF TH SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE POSSIBLE LACK OF SURFACE
HEATING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS WILL KEEP DAILY DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE BEYOND
WEDNESDAY ON HOW QUICKLY TO BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OUR CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY BEHIND A DRYLINE.
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GET DOWN BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
USER IN HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
352 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-261100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
352 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
UNTIL 11 PM CDT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. NEAR AND ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
COLD FRONT A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BEHIND THE DRYLINE...BREEZY
WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUNDAY.
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
547 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             15 S LAKE MARVIN        35.68N 100.17W
04/25/2009  E1.75 INCH       HEMPHILL           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL IS ONGOING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA01299

BROST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
553 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             16 SSE LAKE MARVIN      35.68N 100.06W
04/25/2009  E2.00 INCH       HEMPHILL           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA01300

BROST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             7 WNW GAGEBY            35.66N 100.45W
04/25/2009  M1.00 INCH       HEMPHILL           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA01301

TAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

TXZ020-260015-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-
623 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEASTERN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY...

AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DODSON MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

TXZ005-010-260030-
HEMPHILL TX-LIPSCOMB TX-
627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN CENTRAL HEMPHILL AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES...

AT 628 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF CANADIAN MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL HEMPHILL AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF CANADIAN AND LIPSCOMB...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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