Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
620 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
COULD AFFECT KDHT OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT
AFFECT KAMA AND KGUY UNTIL 01Z. UNDER ANY STORMS...MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN KANSAS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 03 AND 12Z...AFFECTING KDHT AND KGUY FIRST...AND KAMA
1 TO 2 HOURS LATER. BEHIND THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS...LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN MVFR IF
NOT IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH 15 TO 18Z.

SJOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NUDGING INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO SHOULD ENTER THE
PANHANDLE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. LIKE YESTERDAY...MODEST WIND SHEAR
VALUES COULD RESULT IN SOME SEVERE STORMS. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...LOW
AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAVE MINIMIZED THE AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL HEATING...AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE PANHANDLES.

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS AND CONSIDERING THE RECENT TRENDS...AM
HESITANT TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION FOR ANY PERIOD. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON
IF IT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE REGION OR IN THE PANHANDLE REGION.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
ECMWF...THOUGH IT CONTINUES TO FAVOR NORTHWEST FLOW IS SHOWING THE
RIDGE AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
CONSIDERING THIS TREND...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT PRECIPITATION AND RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED IN PALO DURO CANYON AND MANY LOCATIONS HAD
WELL OVER AN INCH YESTERDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
SATURATED GROUND. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...REMAINS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT AND A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ERGO...WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL RAIN
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED RAIN TOTALS ABOVE 1 INCH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY BECOME RUNOFF
AND COULD LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN
AREAS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TOMORROW AS THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RELATIVELY STABLE LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

11/16

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
545 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-301100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
545 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH 9 PM CDT AND FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH 1 AM CDT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WITH MANY AREAS HAVING ALREADY
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT
STORM REPORTS...FLOODING ISSUES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO.

SJOHNSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
603 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             FELT                    36.57N 102.78W
07/29/2009  E0.75 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL LASTED ABOUT 2 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900123

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             4 W FELT                36.57N 102.85W
07/29/2009  E1.00 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900124

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
620 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 W BOISE CITY         36.73N 102.71W
07/29/2009                   CIMARRON           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCH TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900125

LG