Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
236 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MOVES THIS WAY. PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BROUGHT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BETWEEN THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO NOW WILL MOVE THIS WAY LATER TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BEST.

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR WILL HELP MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN BRING THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS DIRECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN GET OVER THE AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE NOT GONE TOO WILD ON THE POPS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WAY.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OUT ONTO THE PLAINS AS BEFORE. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF KEEPING THE HIGH FURTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN WE MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING POPS FURTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST.

WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE WARM BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOES NOT BUILD AS STRONGLY
INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED BY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  80  66  85  64 /  60  30  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  66  87  64  91  66 /  30  20  30  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              63  84  64  89  63 /  70  40  50  20  20
BORGER TX                  70  88  68  88  67 /  40  30  40  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              68  84  67  91  67 /  50  30  40  20  20
CANYON TX                  66  78  66  87  65 /  60  30  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               69  85  67  84  64 /  60  30  30  10  20
DALHART TX                 65  83  64  89  63 /  60  30  40  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66  85  66  90  66 /  30  20  40  20  20
HEREFORD TX                65  78  65  87  65 /  60  30  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                67  90  64  87  65 /  30  20  30  10  20
PAMPA TX                   68  89  67  84  64 /  40  20  30  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                70  93  66  88  64 /  50  20  30   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              72  92  68  88  65 /  60  20  20   5  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

16/15

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
242 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

TXZ015-042015-
WHEELER TX-
242 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR WHEELER COUNTY.

AT 241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LELA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SJOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

TXZ019-020-042030-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-DONLEY TX-
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR DONLEY AND
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES.

AT 256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF QUAIL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SJOHNSON