Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
710 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

.AVIATION...
FOR 0000 UTC TAFS...FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PANHANDLES.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS EVEN THOUGH THICK CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE LIMITED DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH THE AREA
PROMOTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTION. UPPER LOW IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST OVERNIGHT. THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
GIVEN STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS DESPITE TEMPS COOLING OFF FURTHER ONCE
THE SUN SETS. IN ADDITION...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES DRYLINE
HAS PUSHED WEST OF THE TX/NM BORDER...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA AS INDICATED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. HAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS.

UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO EASTERN NM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY SLOT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. STILL POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TO AFFECT MAINLY
THE KGUY TERMINAL BUT GIVEN SCT NATURE OF CONVECTION...LEFT OUT
MENTION OF TSRA FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF LOW WILL
SUPPORT MVFR CIGS AREA WIDE EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT AS WINDS VEER MORE
TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...IMPROVED CIGS TO VFR. CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009/

DISCUSSION...
BOWLING BALL UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TODAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EWD TRACK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DRYLINE RETREATING TO THE W NOW. EXPECT CONTINUED DVLPMT OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW GETS
CLOSER. RETAINED SVR WORDING FOR TONIGHT...AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS WRN ZONES...AND CATEGORICAL CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS PLAUSIBLE BEFORE 12Z FRI.

THEN ON FRIDAY...NRN ZNS MOST VULNERABLE TO WRAPAROUND PRECIP...WHILE
PARTS OF SRN TX PNHDL MAY GET DRY SLOTTED. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OK PNHDL
AND LOWEST SWRN TX PNHDL. ON SATURDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS
MOVEMENT WITH NRN ZNS UNDER THREAT FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP WHILE SRN
TX PNHDL SHOULD REMAIN DRY. KEPT SAME POP STRUCTURE AS WAS INHERITED.
IMPROVING WX TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH NO POPS MENTIONED AFTER
SATURDAY NIGHT.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER WX SEEN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DVLPS OVER WRN US...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FCST PCKG WAS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE
RETAINED ITS INTEGRITY.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AT LEAST DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/05

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-171100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
318 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS BUT WILL BE A
BIGGER THREAT TONIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 10 PM FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

IN ADDITION...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY...AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             6 W SIMMS               35.03N 102.76W
04/16/2009  E1.00 INCH       DEAF SMITH         TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT IS ALONG SH 214. HAIL BEGAN AS PEA SIZE THEN
            INCREASED TO QUARTER SIZE. HAIL CONTINUED UNTIL 620 PM.
            HAIL COVERS THE GROUND TO A DEPTH OF A FEW INCHES IN
            PLACES. TREE LIMBS BROKEN BY HAIL AND BIRDS KILLED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA01283

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             6 W SIMMS               35.03N 102.76W
04/16/2009  E1.00 INCH       DEAF SMITH         TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT IS ALONG SH 214. HAIL BEGAN AS PEAS AT 6 PM.
            HAIL INCREASED TO QUARTER SIZE AND CONTINUED UNTIL 620
            PM. HAIL COVERS THE GROUND TO A DEPTH OF A FEW INCHES IN
            PLACES. TREE LIMBS WERE BROKEN AND A BIRD WAS KILLED BY
            THE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901281

CK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

OKZ001-TXZ001-170015-
CIMARRON OK-DALLAM TX-
639 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN CIMARRON AND WESTERN
DALLAM COUNTIES...

AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FELT TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARE
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN CIMARRON AND WESTERN DALLAM COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF BOISE CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NUTTALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             6 W SIMMS               35.03N 102.76W
04/16/2009  E1.00 INCH       DEAF SMITH         TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL ENDED AT 620 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901282

CK

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