Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

.AVIATION...
TSTMS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY...MOVING S AT 10 TO
15 KT.  OUTFLOW SEEN WITH CLUSTERS NEAR BORGER AND LAKE MEREDITH WILL
LIKELY AFFECT WIND DIRECTION AT AMA DURING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING
ONLY ALTOCU AS CLOUD TYPE OVERNIGHT.  SLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT SSWLY BEFORE SUNRISE.  HIGH BASED CU AND CB EXPECTED
AGAIN WED AFTN WITH SSWLY SFC WINDS NEAR 15 KT.  VFR FCST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES THAT DRAPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WITH HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING...RAIN CHANCES HAVE IMPROVED ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING IS BEST AND STEERING FLOW TAKES
ACTIVITY SOUTH.

RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO...WORKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. MODELS STILL AGREE WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERING OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
ENHANCE OUR RAIN OPPORTUNITY...SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
CONSIDER INCREASING POPS AS THIS DAY APPROACHES. POPS WERE EXTENDED
INTO MONDAY SINCE EXISTING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY IF SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER READINGS AT LEAST ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES.

NUNEZ

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW TO MODERATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND TWENTY FOOT WINDS REMAIN
BELOW THRESHOLD.

NUNEZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  65  93  66  92 /  20  30   5   5  30
BEAVER OK                  97  62 100  70  97 /  10  10   5  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              95  63  96  64  93 /  20  30   5  10  30
BORGER TX                  97  69  98  70  98 /  20  30   5   5  30
BOYS RANCH TX              96  66  99  65  96 /  20  40   5   5  30
CANYON TX                  91  62  93  64  91 /  20  30   5   5  20
CLARENDON TX               93  67  94  68  95 /  20  30   5   5  20
DALHART TX                 95  63  97  62  93 /  30  40   5  10  30
GUYMON OK                  97  64 101  66  96 /  10  20   5  10  20
HEREFORD TX                92  61  94  62  92 /  30  30   5   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                98  63  97  69  96 /  10  20   5  10  30
PAMPA TX                   95  67  92  68  93 /  20  30   5   5  30
SHAMROCK TX                96  66  95  69  95 /  10  30   5   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              95  68  97  70  98 /  10  20   5   5  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/24

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-011100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

TAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
714 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

TXZ012-017-010100-
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
714 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR RANDALL AND POTTER
COUNTIES.

AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF AMARILLO...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH...TOWARD AMARILLO.

HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. AVOID NORMAL FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

JC

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