Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN TS
AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR KAMA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL BRING DOWN VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF CB IN ALL SITES.

WYNNE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN FOR ALL OF TONIGHT. WE ARE
RECEIEVING REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN ALREADY AND THE STORMS ARE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS SO FAR. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
MARGINAL. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S NEAR THE FRONT HAVE
CREATED A 35 TO 40 DEGREE DEW POINT SPREAD...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE PULSE NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO GENERATE HAIL. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PRESENT...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HAILER...BUT
THINKING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE WINDS AND POSSIBLY SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINERS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE FAVORED AREA FOR RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA STILL SUGGEST THE PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL RISE NEAR 1.8 INCHES SUNDAY MORNING...SO ISOLATED FLOODING MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL.

CLOUD COVER AND UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL. MAY EVEN SEE HIGH TEMPS STALL IN THE UPPER
70S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY THOUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE VORT MAXIMAS FLOWING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUS...HAVE FOCUSED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THEN TRANSITION MORE TO THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW COMPONENT BECOMES MORE
PREVALENT. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO SEASONABLE NORMS ON MONDAY AND
GENERALLY STAY AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FELT
THE MEX WAS RUNNING A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE. MANY PANHANDLE LOCATION
WEST OF THE CAPROCK STRUGGLED TO REACH THE MID MID TO UPPER 90S WHEN
THE UPPER HIGH WAS SITTING RIGHT OVER THE AREA. SO WITH NW FLOW AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH MOIST SURFACE AIR IN PLACE...THINKING
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY FALL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WHICH SEEMED TO FALL
CLOSER TO THE MEN THAN THE MEX.

LL WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST
AIR IN PLACE AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFTERNOON
MOUNTAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT INTO THE PANHANDLES WITHIN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT. FELT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK DURING THE 00Z TO 12Z TIME PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
CAVEAT WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MODELS SUGGEST THE FLOW
WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THIS COULD
PREVENT PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOCUSED JUST ON THE NORTH FOR NOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. COOLER
AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST AIR WILL THEN LINGER
OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

21/15

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-281100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL
SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

NUNEZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
611 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

TXZ017-272345-
RANDALL TX-
611 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR RANDALL COUNTY.

AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A THUNDERSTORM OVER LAKE TANGLEWOOD...MOVING NORTH AT 5
MPH.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. AVOID NORMAL FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

KIMBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

TXZ012-017-280100-
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR RANDALL AND POTTER
COUNTIES.

AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER AMARILLO...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. AVOID NORMAL FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LG