Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
612 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE
THAN THE DALHART OR GUYMON TAF SITES. WILL CARRY TEMP GROUP TIL 04Z
MONDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ERRATIC WINDS. EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING AND GUSTY BY 15Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

SJOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THUS INCREASING THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEREFORE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 02Z.
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT THINK THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH 02Z.

TOMORROW WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES...EXPECT THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THEREFORE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DRIER PATTERN. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN NEW MEXICO ON ANY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK COULD
PROPAGATE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS POINT TO INCLUDE POPS. WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING...A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

INTO THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHIFT FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT HAS DOMINATED OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO
TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD SIGNAL A RETURN TO A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE
UNCERTAIN AS TO THE EXACT ONSET OF THIS PATTERN...IT COULD BE AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT
INCLUDED POPS IN THE EXTENDED AS OF YET.

SJOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASING...AS A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES.

SJOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
745 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

TXZ004-005-150115-
LIPSCOMB TX-OCHILTREE TX-
745 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER OCHILTREE
AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES...

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF WOLF CREEK PARK...OR ABOUT 11
MILES SOUTH OF PERRYTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

UP TO ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
PERSONS NEAR WOLF CREEK PARK CAN EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL...AND THESE GUSTY WINDS.

JJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
838 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

TXZ019-020-150215-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-DONLEY TX-
838 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DONLEY AND
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES...

AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WELLINGTON TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF HEDLEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

JJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
854 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

TXZ012-017-150230-
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
854 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RANDALL AND
POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BUSHLAND TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF BUFFALO LAKE...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN WILDORADO AND AMARILLO SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR THE STRONG WINDS.

JJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
935 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW DALHART            36.03N 102.55W
06/14/2009  M74 MPH          HARTLEY            TX   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA01543

CK

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