Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
BOWLING BALL UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TODAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EWD TRACK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DRYLINE RETREATING TO THE W NOW. EXPECT CONTINUED DVLPMT OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW GETS
CLOSER. RETAINED SVR WORDING FOR TONIGHT...AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS WRN ZONES...AND CATEGORICAL CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS PLAUSIBLE BEFORE 12Z FRI.

THEN ON FRIDAY...NRN ZNS MOST VULNERABLE TO WRAPAROUND PRECIP...WHILE
PARTS OF SRN TX PNHDL MAY GET DRY SLOTTED. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OK PNHDL
AND LOWEST SWRN TX PNHDL. ON SATURDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS
MOVEMENT WITH NRN ZNS UNDER THREAT FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP WHILE SRN
TX PNHDL SHOULD REMAIN DRY. KEPT SAME POP STRUCTURE AS WAS INHERITED.
IMPROVING WX TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH NO POPS MENTIONED AFTER
SATURDAY NIGHT.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER WX SEEN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DVLPS OVER WRN US...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FCST PCKG WAS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE
RETAINED ITS INTEGRITY.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AT LEAST DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  62  39  64  41 /  80  20  20  10  10
BEAVER OK                  48  59  42  62  40 /  90  70  40  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              40  54  37  59  38 /  70  50  30  20  10
BORGER TX                  47  65  45  65  46 /  80  30  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              42  61  38  63  40 /  70  20  20  10  10
CANYON TX                  42  62  38  64  40 /  80  20  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               50  64  43  68  44 /  90  30  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 41  56  37  61  39 /  70  30  30  20  10
GUYMON OK                  43  57  42  62  42 /  90  60  30  30  20
HEREFORD TX                40  62  36  64  39 /  70  20  20  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                48  61  43  64  41 /  90  60  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   47  63  45  64  45 /  90  40  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                51  64  45  68  45 /  90  40  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              52  66  46  70  46 /  90  40  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-171100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
318 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS BUT WILL BE A
BIGGER THREAT TONIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 10 PM FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

IN ADDITION...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY...AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

JOHNSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
505 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             8 W AMARILLO            35.20N 101.96W
04/16/2009  E1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOVES TRUCK STOP AT INTERSTATE 40 AND ARNOT ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901277

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
506 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             8 W AMARILLO            35.20N 101.96W
04/16/2009  E0.88 INCH       POTTER             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INTERSTATE 40 AND ARNOT ROAD

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901276

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
508 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             2 NW CANYON             35.00N 101.95W
04/16/2009  E1.00 INCH       RANDALL            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL COVERING GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901279

CK