Wind Advisory 2, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS71 KALY 040038
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
838 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-041200-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0002.090404T1200Z-090405T0400Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
838 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT SATURDAY NIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. THE GUST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS71 KALY 040931
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
531 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2009

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-042030-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0002.090404T1200Z-090405T0400Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
531 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. 

WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 55
MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FUNNELED DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE
EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

TAW

000 
WWUS71 KALY 042003
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2009

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-042200-
/O.EXT.KALY.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090404T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
403 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 45 TO
55 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TOWARD SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000 
WWUS71 KALY 042205
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2009

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-042315-
/O.EXP.KALY.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090404T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
605 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2009

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
ADJACENT WESTERN ENGLAND.

THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING...RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 40 MPH...BUT
THESE WILL BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED REPORTS OF DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

THE WIND DIMINISH A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BRINGING A SOAKING
RAINFALL AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SHOWERY...BLUSTERY...AND COOL
CONDITIONS.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING
SOUTHERN VERMONT VALID FROM 8PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING FROM A
COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW...RAIN FROM THIS UPCOMING STORM...
POSSIBLE CONVECTION...AND WET CONDITIONS FROM PREVIOUS RAIN.

A QUICK UPDATE AS TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT HAD BEEN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE
A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE PRECIP STARTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WERE
SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND
GREEN MTNS OF VT BASED ON LATEST OBS.

A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED H500 TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST THIS MORNING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
NICELY DEPICTED THIS DYNAMIC TROUGH FIRING TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
DURING THE NIGHT. THE CONVECTION DIMINISHED SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK
BUT HAS SINCE HAS STARTED TO REFIRE IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL PA SOUTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA PENIN ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE. ON THE GFS...THE
1.5 PV SFC WITH POTENTIAL TEMP AND WINDS OVERLAYED SHOWS THIS
ANOMALY HEADING RIGHT TOWARDS UPSTATE NY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

STRATUS AND DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT TO THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING. THE NAM/GFS SHOWS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SFC MOVING IN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
WE ARE EXPECTING PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND
THE PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS WRN PA/ERN LAKE ERIE. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SECONDARY WAVE. WE BELIEVE THE DECELERATING
H500 WAVE IS SO STRONG THE PRIMARY WAVE WILL REMAIN DOMINATE BEFORE
THE OCCLUSION ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT.

LOTS OF ISSUES TO DISCUSS FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AFTER THE
INITIAL BURST OF RAIN. THE FIRST ISSUE IS STRONG E/SE WINDS WITH
THE H850 LOW LEVEL JET. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A INVERSION DEVELOPING
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE H925 WINDS ARE ONLY 20-25
KTS. THE H850 WINDS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS...SRN GREEN ARE ABOUT
40-50 KTS. WE DON/T THINK WE WILL TRANSPORT ALL THE MOMENTUM TO
THE SFC. WE BELIEVE SOME GUSTS TO 30-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT PLACES
LIKE KDDH..BUT AN ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY.

THE SECOND ISSUE IS CONVECTION...SIMILAR IN SOME WAYS TO THIS PAST
SUNDAY PM/EVENING SYSTEM...SHOWALTER INDICES FALL TO -1C TO -3C IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE GFS/NAM. THE MUCAPE VALUES FROM
ROUGHLY THE CAPITAL REGION/SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST ARE IN THE
100-400 J/KG RANGE. H700-500 LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THERE
IS A CYCLONIC CURVED H300 JET STREAK SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD. THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FCST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

THE FINAL ISSUE IS TEMPS /THERE ARE ALWAYS MORE ISSUES
THOUGH/...THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER A DRY SLOT POKES INTO THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WE BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ANY BONAFIDE DRY SLOT STAYING EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE STRONG SFC CYCLONE PASSING OVER W-CNTRL NY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SRN GREENS/BERKS MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO SPIKE UP INTO THE U50S THERE. THE SHADOWING EFFECT
MAY INITIALLY CURTAIL THE RAIN TOTALS IN WRN
BENNINGTON...WASHINGTON...AND RENSSELAER COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO 50S.

TOTAL RAINFALL PRIOR TO SUNSET LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUARTER TO
POTENTIALLY THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH WITH THE
SFC WAVE PASSING THROUGH CNTRL NY. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE H850-500 LAYER WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE GFS MAY BE OVER DOING THE QPF
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT
YIELDS AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. TEMPS WILL
BE COOLING DOWN...AND SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WOBBLES SLOWLY N/NE OVER NRN
NY AND SRN QUEBEC. AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE /AROUND 980-985 HPA/
MEANDERS NORTHEAST THE WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP TOWARDS DAY
BREAK. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE TRICKY WITH LOWS OVER THE MTNS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE VALLEYS. H850 TEMPS
TUMBLE TO 0 TO -5C BTWN 06Z-12Z. TOTAL 24-HR QPF BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AROUND TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR
SO. WE FOLLOWED CLOSELY HPC QPF GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
CANADIAN GGEM/NAM. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW WITH MORE
DETAILS.

SATURDAY...WRAP AROUND AND H700-850 DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE UTILIZED LIKELY
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND
EAST. THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP...AND STRONG MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON FROM VERY IMPRESSIVE
LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THE H850 FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 45-60 KTS.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE 30-40 KTS. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
SOME GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE FROM ABOUT 2-3 KFT. WE MAY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE
OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACK/HIGH PEAKS OF
THE CATSKILLS. IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE STRONG HORIZONTAL SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO SUBSIDE...AS A BUBBLE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. WE ENDED THE SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT OVER
THE NRN TIER...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEAST. LOW AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS
H500 TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO CREEP BACK TO NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
IN THE VALLEYS...AND 40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AS
THE NEXT POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST...WILL BEGINNING INCREASING POPS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. AS THE PCPN STARTS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW OR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE SERIES OF STORMS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE
FORECAST AREA RECENTLY. THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO 982 MB
AS IT PASSES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE GFS DEEPENS IT TO
973 MB AT IT MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS IT DOES
NOT EXIT UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

HAVE FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SINCE IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR
THESE INTENSE SYSTEMS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOWS TO PARK THEMSELVES OVER
EASTERN CANADA AS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

AS A RESULT...AFTER A BURST OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MONDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE...HAVE FORECAST A
PROLONGED PERIOD ON CLOUDY...WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH PERSISTENT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT IT
WILL FEEL VERY UNSPRINGLIKE WITH A STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND
MUCH OF THE TIME MAKING IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE PREVAILING OVER THE AREA MIDDAY TODAY. A
FORTY MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TO LONG ISLAND JUST BEFORE 2PM. THIS BAND
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD REACH POUGHKEEPSIE
AROUND 2PM...ALBANY AROUND 3PM...AND GLENS FALLS AROUND 4PM.
BEHIND THIS BAND THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH GENERALLY MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A RATHER SIZEABLE AREA OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CLOSE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NJ SUGGESTING
A MARINE LAYER INVERSION. MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT MAY BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR AT
BEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT
ALBANY AND POUGHKEEPSIE AND NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS FARTHER
NORTH AT GLENS FALLS. THEY ARE FOREAST TO VEER SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW CENTER...LOCATED IN WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDER WILL BE A GOOD BET EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT POUGHKEEPSIE...AND SOME WILL PROBABLY OCCUR
IN THE VICINITY OF ALBANY AND GLENS FALLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
LATE TONIGHT...MVFR...PERHAPS A FEW INTERVALS VFR. CHC -SHRAS.
SAT...VFR...MVFR OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CHC -SHRAS. WINDY.
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 40 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND BERKSHIRES. THE WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE RAINFALL AT 70 TO
90 PERCENT. THEY WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. THE
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS /10Z FRI TO 10Z SAT/ WILL
GENERALLY BE TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. PRELIMINARY FORECASTS INDICATE THAT
THE SACANDAGA RIVER ABOVE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE...THE SCHROON
RIVER...THE MOHAWK RIVER IN THE UTICA AREA...AND THE HUDSON
RIVER IN THE STILLWATER FLATS AREA...WILL GET CLOSE TO OR GO
OVER FLOOD. ALSO LAKE DELTA AND HINCKLEY RESERVOIR ARE BOTH
SPILLING OVER AND WILL GET CLOSE TO THE LEVELS THAT COULD
CAUSE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION WAS MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ
AND THIS BAND IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY 3PM
AND REACH THE ALBANY AREA AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY AROUND 4PM.

THERE IS NOW ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH WHICH WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 8PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE MORE QUICKLY RESPONDING STREAMS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT MAY START TO FLOOD LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH FLOODING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN CONTINUES AND
LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE TIME TO RESPOND. AT THIS TIME
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE MOHAWK RIVER FROM
LITTLE FALLS DOWNSTREAM...ON THE HUDSON RIVER BELOW THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...NOR ON THE BATTEN KILL...
HOOSIC RIVER...SCHOHARIE CREEK...OR ON THE HOUSATONIC RIVER
IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM BRINGING
A POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF MAY OCCUR FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE COULD ALSO BE WET SNOW TO
DEAL WITH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND EVEN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN FLOODING ON THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IF RAINFALL IS HEAVY ENOUGH SINCE THAT RIVER WILL NOT HAVE
ENOUGH TIME TO RECEDE. IT COULD ALSO CAUSE FLOODING ON THE
SCHROON RIVER TO WORSEN. THE TRACK...EVOLUTION...AND VARIATIONS
WITH THE AMOUNT AND TYPES OF PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING FORECASTS OF STAGE
AND DISCHARGE...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/RCK
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...MAGLARAS
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...RCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

NYZ032-033-038-039-041>043-082>084-VTZ013>015-041100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1245 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. SOME SMALL HAIL LESS
THAN A HALF AN INCH MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 45 MPH. IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN...
THEN WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ040-047>054-058>061-063>066-041100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-MONTGOMERY-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
1245 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...
CATSKILLS...EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE MID HUDSON REGION
OF NEW YORK STATE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. SOME SMALL HAIL LESS
THAN A HALF AN INCH MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 45 MPH. IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN...
THEN WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047-051>054-058>061-063>066-032000-
WESTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-
WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-
SCHOHARIE NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-
EASTERN ALBANY NY-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-
159 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...GREENE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS...
RENSSELAER...BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 158 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY RAIN.  THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF...
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT BETWEEN
230 PM AND 330 PM.
THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...PORTIONS OF THE
TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 330 PM AND 430 PM.

BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY