Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
EVENING.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...LIKELY PRODUCING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTING THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA.

AS OF 330 PM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WORKED INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY WITH VIL VALUES UP TO 62 DBZ! (VIL OF THE DAY WAS
CALCULATED TO BE 50).  THIS STORM HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND
MIGHT CONTAIN HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM SHOWS SIGN OF
ROTATION. JUST RECEIVED VERIFICATION ON THIS STORM WITH QUARTER SIZE
HAIL IN HERKIMER. (PLEASE REFER TO OUR LOCAL STORM REPORT PRODUCT
LSR FOR THIS AND ANY FUTURE REPORTS).

LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG OVER THIS
LOCALITY. OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. SBCAPES ARE ELEVATED...NEAR 2000 J/KG SO WE EXPECT MORE STORMS
TO FIRE UP.

INTERESTING...VERY LITTLE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS DETECTED WITH
THE STRONG STORM.

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB HIGHER INTO THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACH 80 OR BETTER IN MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE "DRY" FRONT HAS MOVED VERY LOW EAST...TO THE WEST OF
A SYRACUSE/ELMIRA LINE.

**********PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST***************

HEALTHY CAPE COMBINED WITH FAIR 0-6KM BULK SHEER AROUND 30KTS AND
MARGINALLY STEEP 850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES JUST UNDER 7.0 C/KM WILL
BE JUST ENOUGH...WHEN TRIGGERED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT (OR ACTUALLY
"DRY" LINE)...TO PRODUCE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH STRONG OR EVEN REACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND OR DAMAGING HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH 00Z.

THUS FAR...MOST OF THE THE STORMS IN OUR AREA HAVE QUICKLY WEAKEN.
THERE APPEARED TO BE AN INHIBITING CAP BUT THIS WILL EASILY BE
BROKEN. THUS FAR...NOTHING REALLY ORGANIZED...JUST PULSE TYPE.

DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80
DEGREES. A SOUTH WIND IS FOUND IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A MORE WSW
FLOW TO THE WEST AND EVEN EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MIGHT BE
SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE APEX OF THE MOHAWK/HUDSON VALLEY
WITH THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE WHICH AS OF
230 PM...AS LOCATED IN WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8PM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  WANE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING...AND SFC FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH. THE SFC COLD
FRONT IS WEAK WITH ONLY MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION EVIDENT AT H850.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION BASED
ON THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
MOIST GROUND FROM THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION. LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT
PASSING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...EXCEPT SOME MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH...AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

ON FRIDAY...A GREAT LAKES CUTOFF /QUITE COMMON ACCORDING TO CSTAR
RESEARCH IN JULY...ESPEC THIS JULY !/ CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH
MINOR PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH.  NO REAL CLEAR
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MARGINAL
LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS MAY STAY DRY DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON THE
BUFKIT PROFILES FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL. WITH H850 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
+14TO +16C...COULD NOT SEE ANY 90S (WHICH THE MAV STILL INDICATES
FOR KPOU) BUT WENT MID TO UPPER 80S MID HUDSON VALLEY...MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL MAKE FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS MONTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUTOFF. THE SFC WAVE
INTENSIFIES A BIT SINCE IT FORMS NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT/RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H250 JET STREAK. WE ARE EXPECTING OVER
RUNNING RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THE
SFC WAVE TO COMMENCE AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WHICH MEAN IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  WE CONTINUE WITH LIKELY
POPS OVERNIGHT. PWAT VALUES APPROACH 1.75" NEAR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY...MOVING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE
NOW AROUND 0C (OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW THAT FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD)
THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY A STRATIFORM EVENT.

THE DRY SLOT...MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY MIGHT ALLOW THE AFTERNOON TO
BE SALVAGEABLE. RAISED TEMPS A CATEGORY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AFTERNOON EXPECTED. LOOK FOR TEMPS 75-80
HUDSON VALLEY...70-75 ELSEWHERE.

RIGHT NOW...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK PRIMARILY DRY. KEEP SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE SATURDAY EVENING AND ONLY IN THE
ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER...A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH LOOKS TO FORM
DURING THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL "LURK" TO
THE WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. INITIALLY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...WE
THINK MAINLY DRY WEATHER MIGHT PERSIST INTO MONDAY (EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCES AGAIN TO OUR NW).

WITH TIME HOWEVER...PWATS WILL INCREASE WITH AN INCREASINGLY SSW
FLOW...AND THE UPPER AIR LOW APPROACHES CLOSER. THE LOW COMING
CLOSER WILL PRODUCE COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE
HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL. IT WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS SUMMER
AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE REGION...
BUT NO FEATURES CURRENTLY SEEN ON STLT/RADAR TO BE ABLE TO PINPOINT
TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VCSH AND THE CB QUALIFIER THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY BASED...SO IT WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...FOG/MIST WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PROBLEM THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION
OCCURS AT EACH TAF SITE. AT THIS POINT...WILL FORECAST MVFR FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH IFR FOG
AT KGFL.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS ON
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AFTN-SUN...POSS MVFR AM FOG/CHC IFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/TSRA EACH
DAY.
MON...VFR/MVFR...CIGS...NO SIG WX AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH ANOTHER DAMP NIGHT WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT.

ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10
MPH. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 45-55 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WELL.

MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE WAY FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF
SATURDAY. RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING AROUND 30 MPH
WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ONE
LOCATION...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY. SOME SHARP RISES ON STREAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF A QUICK INCH OR SO FALLS IN AN HOUR OR LESS.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUMPING TO
ABOUT 1.50 TO 2 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS FROM A WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY PRODUCE A HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE HOUSATONIC BASIN POSSIBLE. EXPECT SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK
RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...MAGLARAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-171800-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
159 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ACTIVATED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

LITCHFIELD

BERKSHIRE

ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MONTGOMERY RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE ULSTER WARREN
WASHINGTON

BENNINGTON WINDHAM

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
254 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

NYZ032-033-038-161930-
HAMILTON NY-NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-
254 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LITTLE FALLS...ILION...HERKIMER...

AT 252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWOOD TO 7 MILES WEST OF FRANKFORT...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HINCKLEY TO UTICA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
POLAND BY 300 PM EDT
OHIO AND COLD BROOK BY 305 PM EDT
NEWPORT...ILION AND FRANKFORT BY 310 PM EDT
MOHAWK BY 315 PM EDT
HERKIMER AND MIDDLEVILLE BY 320 PM EDT
LITTLE FALLS BY 330 PM EDT

BJF/NAS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             HERKIMER                43.03N 74.99W
07/16/2009  M1.00 INCH       HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAIN STREET IN HERKIMER

0325 PM     HAIL             HERKIMER                43.03N 74.99W
07/16/2009  E1.00 INCH       HERKIMER           NY   PUBLIC

            N. PROSPECT STREET

0332 PM     HAIL             HERKIMER                43.03N 74.99W
07/16/2009  M1.00 INCH       HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STEUBEN STREET

0332 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HERKIMER                43.03N 74.99W
07/16/2009                   HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN STEUBEN ST.

&&

SDIRIENZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             LITTLE FALLS            43.05N 74.86W
07/16/2009  M0.75 INCH       HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SDIRIENZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
342 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HERKIMER                43.03N 74.99W
07/16/2009                   HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG ROUTE 5

&&

SDIRIENZ