Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
222 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ERYR (XSTV) AREA OF RA/SCTD T HAS MVD WELL E OF FA. SCTD CNVTN
CONTS FM NRN NECK VA TO PORTIONS OF (LWR MD) ERN SHR. DWPT TRENDS
PAST 3-4 HRS SHOWING POOLING IN TWO AREAS...ONE FM ERN MD/NRN NECK
VA NE INTO SRN NJ...THE OTR ACRS XTRM SE VA AND NE NC. SLGT DRYING
TAKING PLC FARTHER INLAND...DWPT DN TO ARND 60F INVOF I95 ON W.

ATMOS TAKING A BRK ACRS BULK OF FA (OUTSIDE OF SCTD CNVTN IN NE
QTR) ATTM. MDLS (ESP NAM) SUGG THAT NEXT WINDOW FOR DVLPMNT FM ABT
20-22Z THROUGH ERY TNGT (TO MDNGT)...MNLY IN SE VA/NE NC AS
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. WL HV SCTD POPS FOR MUCH OF ERN
AREAS (E I95 THIS EVE)...SOME CONCERN OVR LCLLY HVY RA CLSR TO THE
CST (ESP IN HAMPTON RDS/NE NC).

ANY CNVTN XPCTD TO DSPT OVRNGT...LVG PCLDY CONDS. W/ SATURATED
SOIL...AND LGT WNDS...HV CONTD MENTION AREAS OF FG LT. LO TEMPS FM
U50S FAR NNW...TO L/M60S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HOW DO WE GET OUT OF OUR CURRENT (WET) PTRN? APRS...NOT
EASILY...OR QUIKLY. JET AXIS ALOFT/ZNL FLO RMNG ACRS THE RGN FRI
THROUGH SAT. EMBEDDED IN THIS FAST FLO WL BE A FEW S/WS. ONE
APPROACHES FM THE W LT FRI...CRSS THE RGN FRI NGT/ERY SAT. THE
NEXT WK ARRIVES SAT NGT. LLVL DRYING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WL
REVERSE...AND HI PTNTL FOR RETURN OF DWPTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
M/U60S THRUT (BY FRI NGT/SAT).

XPCTG WRM DAY FRI...HI TEMPS IN THE 80S MOST PLCS...XCPTN BEING
WHR LCL CBRZS DVLP. POPS WL BE HELD TO 20-30%. BY FRI NGT...ESP
AFT MDNGT...AND THROUGH ERY/MID MRNG SAT...NEXT S/W CRSG THE AREA
WL RESULT IN HVG POPS INCRSD TO ARND 40% THRUT. LO TEMPS FRI NGT
GENLY IN THE 60S. ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT GENUINE DRYNG MIDDAY/AFTN SAT
AS LLVL FLO FM THE SW INCRSS...AND WL HV LWRG POPS DURG THAT
TIME PD.

MDLS SUGG CDFNT/MLVL S/W CRSG THE RGN SAT NGT...W/ AT LEAST PSBL
SCTD CNVTN. ATTM...APRS TO BE STRNG ENUF TO LEAD TO SUFFICIENT
DRYING ON SUN TO LV POPS OUT FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SUN 75 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE
CWA LATER SUNDAY...PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN BY ERY
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY/TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SLOWLY
AMPLIFY INTO A LOW AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROF...WITH A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS LOOKING TO RIDE THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY (SOUND FAMILIAR?).
ALLOWED FOR LOW CHC POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...WITH BEST CHCS ORIENTED OVER THE SERN CWA. BY MIDWEEK...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR QUICKLY
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO
OUR REGION. THE RESULT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS FOR WED/THU.

FOR TEMPS...MAXIMA RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S/NR80 INLAND FOR THIS
PERIOD...U60S/L70S COASTAL ZONES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH
COULD EASILY SEE SOME M/U40S IN NORMAL COOLER SPOTS OVER INTERIOR
EASTERN SHORE AND NW OF RIC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVRF/VFR CONDS CONTINUING THIS AFTRN THROUGH FRI MORNG. MVFR
CONDS FOR RIC AND SBY THROUGH LATE AFTRN WITH SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING E. COULD SEE ISLTD IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SHRA
OR TSRA FOR SBY. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. MAINLY
MVFR/VFR CONDS THEN LIKELY FOR FRI THRU SUN...DESPITE CHCS FOR
PCPN LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT EVENG...AS A COUPLE MORE FRNTL BNDRIES
SWING THRU THE AREA. HI PRES SHUD BLD IN DURING SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
HV MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINE FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND WL
EXTEND IT (MAINLY FOR SWELL) THRU THIS 10Z FRIDAY. WNDS...WAVES AND
SEAS SHUD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN THO A COUPLE OF FRNTS SWING THRU THE AREA LATE FRI
AND SAT NGT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION FM THE WNW...WITH GENLY
GOOD BOATING CONDS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-082000-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
347 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE COAST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

ANZ630>633-654-656-658-082000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
347 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ650-652-082000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
347 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

05

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