Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH VIRGINIA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING INTO NEW YORK STATE THURSDAY...PUSHING A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LO PRES LCTD OVR KY THIS AFTN...W/ WRMFNT XTNDG EWD TO THE
MDATLC CST. THAT FNT GRDLY MVG N THROUGH SRN VA ATTM...BY LT
EVE...WL BE ACRS NRN SXNS OF FA. HIER INSTABILITY/WRM AMS SPRDG
N...SOME INDCTN OF BETTER LLVL HELICITY/DRCTNL SHR THROUGH THIS
EVE. TOR WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 9 PM...WL BE WATCHING FM STRNGR CNVTN
TO DVLP IN THE NEXT CPL HRS (FM S TO NE)...INITIALLY CLS TO THE
VA/NC BRDR. WL NEED TO BE ALERT TO STRNG/SVR WND GUSTS/LRG HAIL.

OVRNGT...CONTD HI PTNTL FOR SHRAS/SCTD T AHD OF APPROACHING SFC
CDFNT FM THE W (AS LO PRES TRACKS NE THROUGH PA...TWD NE CONUS).
WL HV POPS GENLY FM 60-80% THRUT...W/ LO TEMPS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LLVL FLO BCMG MR WSWLY DURG THU...W/ WKNG FNTL BNDRY REACHING THE
CST IN THE AFTN. WL CONT W/ HI CHC/LIKELY POPS IN THE MRNG
HRS...W/ CHC POPS...ESP E OF I95 IN THE AFTN HRS. MDL GUID HINTING
AT ONLY SLGT LLVL DRY AIR ADVCTN/LWRG SFC-BLYR DWPTS IN THE
AFTN...AND MNLY CONFINED TO WRN/CNTRL SXNS OF FA. HI TEMPS FM THE
M70S TO L80S.

FNTL BNDRY CONTS TO DSPT OVR SE VA/NE NC THU NGT. GOING W/
CLR/PCLDY SKY...AND PSBL FG DVLPMNT AFT MDNGT (GIVEN SATURATED
SOIL AND LGT SFC WNDS). LO TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S.

FRI LOOKS TO BE BEST DAY OF THE WK (THUS FAR)...PSNY W/ HI TEMPS
IN THE 80S. WK UPR LVL SYS APPROACHES FM THE W LT FRI/FRI
NGT...PTNTLLY ACCOMPANIED BY ISLTD/SCTD SHRAS/T. JET AXIS ALOFT/ZNL
FLO RMNG OVR THE RGN SAT...COULD PTNTLLY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISLTD/SCTD CNVTN DVLPG AGN (MIDDAY/AFTN). LO TEMPS FRI NGT IN
THE 50S TO M60S. HI TEMPS SAT 70S TO L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W SUNDAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS INTO ERY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON HOW FAR TO PUSH THE FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
POPS AT SILENT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...MAXIMA RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S/NR80 INLAND FOR THIS PERIOD...U60S/L70S COASTAL
ZONES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH COULD EASILY SEE SOME U40S
IN NORMAL COOLER SPOTS OVER INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE AND NW OF RIC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT ACRS THE AREA AS FRNTL BNDRY
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL VA SLOWLY LIFTS N. INCLUDED BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS FOR RIC AND PHF DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS BUT
EXPECT THEM TO LIFT BY LATE AFTRN. SHWR ACTIVITIY STARTING TO
DEVELOP IN NC WILL MOVE NE ACRS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTRN
THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS EVENG INTO
THU MORNG...DUE TO STRNGER TSTMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS. MAINLY
MVFR/VFR CONDS THEN LIKELY FOR THU THRU SAT DESPITE SLGT TO SML
CHCS FOR PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LGT FLOW THIS AFTN INTO ERY EVENING...AS WAVERING FRONT HEADS
BACK NORTHWARD. E/SE FLOW BECOMES S THEN SW AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
THE BOUNDARY NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. SCA FLAGS GO UP THIS
EVENING FOR ALL ZONES INTO THU MORNG...AND INTO THE AFTN FOR THE NRN
CSTL WTRS. CONDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA FM FRI THRU SUN...WITH
A COLD FRNTL PASSAGE LATE SAT/SAT NGT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR 25-30 KT (NON-CONVECTIVE) GUSTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH GENLY GOOD
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MAM

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