Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE FOR ISSUANCE OF TOR WATCH 239 THROUGH 22Z.

LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH
OF VA CAPES...EXTENDING EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF A RIC-LYH-LYH-TRI
LINE. SMALL AXIS OF LGT TO MOD RAINFALL...ORIENTED MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF AKQ CWA PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THESE SHRAS JUST BRUSHING INTO NW ZONES. THESE SHRAS
ARE IN ASSN WITH UPR VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN MID-ATL
REGION...WHICH IS NICELY VISIBLE ON LT MORNING RAMSDIS WV SAT
IMAGE.

RETAINED CHC SHRA WORDING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. FAIRLY QUIET ATTM
OTHERWISE. DESPITE OVC SKIES OVER NORTHERN ZONES...NOTING GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLEARING...AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THESE TRENDS SEEM TO JIVE PRETTY WELL WITH LATEST
RUC...WHICH CONFINES INSTABILITY TO SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTN. SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE BEST CHC FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL EXIST
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE TIDEWATER/NE
NC RGN. OVER THIS AREA...WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE LIFT (ON THE
ORDER OF -3 TO -6 DEG C) OVER THIS AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH A MAXIMA
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. SCT T WORDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA CURRENTLY IN GRIDS...WITH A BUFFER STRIP OF
SHRAS/CHC T JUST NORTH OF THIS...ENCOMPASSING METRO RIC AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE VA LWR EASTERN SHORE.

MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WET BULBS NEAR 11K FT. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHORT LIVED TORNADO WITH STORMS THAT MOVE
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING.
0-1KM EHI AND HELICITY VALUES APPEAR FAVORABLE AS WELL OVER SE VA
AND INTERIOR NE NC.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY REMAIN QUITE CHALLENGING CONSIDERING
BOUNDARY LOCATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTN/EVE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOOK FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AND MAXIMA NOT GETTING MUCH HIGHER THAN L60S FAR NORTH...MID TO
UPR 60S FOR METRO RIC EAST TO THE NORTHERN NECK. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPS GET QUITE A BIT WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
70S TO MID 80S A GOOD BET ACROSS NE NC AND SOUTHERN TIDEWATER.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS WL WANE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET...WITH TSTM CHCS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY TWRDS MIDNIGHT
N/S AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO NC.
SNDGS SUGGEST MORE -RA/DZ OVRNT OVER NRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. LOOKING
AT EARLY RETURNS FROM 12Z...STILL APPEARS THAT A SERIES OF LOWS
WILL MOVE OVER SE CWA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR AREAS OF MOD/HVY RAIN AT
TIMES ON THE NNW FLANK OF WHERE THE LOWS TRACK...MAINLY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE EASTERN SHORE. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SE CWA ALONG AND SE OF THE TRACKS. LOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW 50S NNW TO THE LOW-MD 60S FAR SE.

ZFPAKQ ISSUED 1116 EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEPT POPS AT CHC FOR NOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SE SECTION
OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PROJECTED POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BNDRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.

STILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WRM FRNTL BNDRY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER FINALLY LOOKS TO PUSH
N BY ERY THU MORNING. A S/W TROF/COLD FROPA LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE
RGN BY LATER THU INTO FRI MORNG. CONSIDERING DEEP LAYER QUASI-ZONAL
(W/SW) FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD...GENERALLY LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHC
AT MOST FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

A SECOND SFC TROF WL RIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THAT THE TIMING/POSITION OF FRNTL BOUNDARIES ARE
STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL NOT GO MUCH
HIGHER THAN 30 POP FOR NOW CONSIDERING THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
SCATTERED.

FOR TEMPS...MAXIMA LOOK TO RANGE THRU THE MID 70S NE TO LOW TO MID
80S ELSEWHERE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TSTMS DVLPING ALONG AND S OF FNTL BDRY CURRENTLY STRETCHED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL VA. HAVE TEMPO FOR RIC, ORF, AND ECG FOR TSTMS AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. VCTS ELSEWHERE. VRF/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS NEAR TSTMS.
CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS CIGS AND VIS LOWER.

TUE/WED SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION BUT A CONTINUATION
OF MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
IN THE VICINITY AND LIGHT BOUNDARY AND SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY FRI WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE WORD POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN FENWICK AND
CHICOTEAGUE AS SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY AS MODELS KEEP SEAS UP THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WILL SAVE
FINAL DECISION FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FRNTL BNDRY EXPECTED TO
DRIFT N ACROSS THE TIDEWATER AND ADJACENT CSTL WTRS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GIVING WINDS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THERE. SE-S WINDS
CONT S OF THE BOUNDARY (AOA 20 KTS) CONT ACROSS NC CSTL WTRS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH N-NE WNDS CONT N OF BNDRY.

FRNTL BNDRY PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK...THUS
WND DRCTN/SPEEDS WILL LIKELY CONT TO VARY DEPENDING ON EXACT LCTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     650-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...AM/MPR
MARINE...AM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
223 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             1 SSE DOWNTOWN NORFOLK  36.84N 76.28W
05/04/2009  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF NORFOLK    VA   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO QUARTER HAIL REPORTED AROUND HARBOR PARK
            AREA...IN DOWNTOWN NORFOLK

&&

05

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