Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG OFF THE EAST
COAST DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 01Z FOR VA/MD CTYS (AND ASSCD CSTL WTRS).
XPCTG BEST CVRG WL BE ALG/W OF A SBY TO AKQ TO RZZ LN. THREAT TO
BE DAMAGING WNDS/LRG HAIL. E AND SE VA/NE NC TO HV PSBL ISTLD
CNVTV DVLPMT THIS EVE. OTRW...HOT/MOD HUMID THIS EVE (THOUGH
NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR LT JULY). XPCTG MUCH OF CVNTN TO GRDLY DSPT
AFT LT EVE...THOUGH WL KP CHC POPS FOR N/CNTRL SXNS. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S TO M70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TYPICAL LT JULY PTRN SETTING UP FOR START OF NEW WK. A WKNG FNTL
BNDRY ENTERS THE RGN FM THE NW BY MON...STALLS AND GRDLY DSPTS
INTO THE MIDWEEK PD. BROAD TROUGH ALOFT INVOF LAKES SWD THE SE
STATES...WHL RDG RMNS DOMINANT OFF THE E CST. LTL CHG IN AMS XPCTD
MON THROUGH WED. DYTM TEMPS TRIMMED DUE TO CLDNS...WHL HUMIDITY
RMNS AT MOD LVLS. DP LYRD MSTR AXIS SHIFTS TO NR THE CST INTO
TUE...LEADING TO LWRG OF POPS FM MON TO TUE. MDLS SUGG NEXT WV OF
MSTR TO ARRIVE DURG WED...WL HV HIEST POPS FOR INLAND AREAS.

NGTM LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S. DYTM HI TEMPS MON/WED MNLY IN
THE M/U80S...80S TO L90S TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL REACH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS A COLD FRONT THAT
SETTLES OVER VIRGINIA ON ABOUT FRIDAY. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. THIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE
W AND SW.

HPC GUIDANCE POPS WERE LOWERED A LITTLE BOTH FOR COORDINATION AND
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE DETAILS. POPS WERE GENERALLY SET
20-40% DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG AND MSTLY AOB 20% FROM MIDNIGHT TO
NOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S LOWERING TO 85 TO 90 OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTED GENLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. IN ADDITION...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SGFNT RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TNGT. HAVE
BROUGHT KSBY DOWN TO 2 MILES IN BR PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO OVER THE MARINE AREA...SO
SCA LOOKS GOOD. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE S/SW...WITH SPEEDS BLO SCA CRITERIA. BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...ALTHO DECAYING FNTS WILL MOVE INTO AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME. NAM APPEARS TO HAV A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...SO HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON IT FOR THE FIRST
48-60 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM/GFS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ RADAR RTS ARND 1730Z.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

NCZ012>016-030>032-271815-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-BERTIE-CHOWAN-
PERQUIMANS-
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ017-102-271815-
INLAND CURRITUCK-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ650-652-654-656-271815-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ633-658-271815-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ632-271815-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANZ630-631-271815-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MDZ021>023-VAZ048-049-060>094-096-097-271815-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-
CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-
AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-
ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-
MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-
ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

MDZ024-025-VAZ095-098>100-271815-
INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-VIRGINIA BEACH-
ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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