Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
353 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT MOVED NORTH THRU THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND HAS THUS
ALLOWED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TO ENSUE. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES
OVR ERN OH WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE NE ACROSS PA/NY THIS MORNING AND
AFTN...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THRU THE MID ATLC. FRONT IS CURRENTLY
BACK ACROSS WV...MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR WESTERN VA BY EARLY
MORNING. THUS FAR LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS HELD
TOGETHER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE LINE BEGINS TO FALL
APART AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS, AND THEN FORM AGAIN AS IT ENTERS INTO
OUR CWA.

FOR TODAY...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE ENTIRE CWA (SAVE FOR PIEDMONT)
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR THREAT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AS MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A MORNING/EARLY AFTN FROPA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN
FIRING OVR SE VA/NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WHERE BEST MSTR AND
INSTABILITY LIES. WRT SLIGHT RISK...PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. AND IF ENUF DEEP LYRD SHEAR
EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AN ISOLATED TOR THREAT IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR NE NC AND FAR SE VA. FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z.

ASIDE FROM TSTM THREAT...EXPECT BREEZY TO WNDY CONDS TODAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER/BREEZY
WX IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE...DUE TO STRNG LO PRES LIFTING NWRD
FM NY STATE INTO ERN CANADA. MDL TSXNS SUGGEST HI RH IN THE H85-70
LYR...LEADING TO HI CONFIDENCE OF MCLDY CONDS...BEGINNING BACK
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...THEN EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA FOR TUE. MIN TEMPS TONGT MUCH COOLER IN THE UPR
30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS ON TUE ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. EXPECT
EVEN COOLER TEMPS TUE NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS AOB THE FREEZING
MARK.

RETURN TO A PRTLY SNY SKY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WRMER ON WED...AS
THE LO LIFTS FARTHER AWAY TO THE N AND HI PRES SLIDES ACRS THE
GULF CST STATES TO THE SE CST. MAX TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON MID LVL FLOW PATTERN BWTN LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE. OVERALL PATTERN FITS WELL WITH PREV FCST AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS AT THIS TIME. INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTS OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS RGN THU AND MOVES INTO THE LWR GRT LKS ON FRI WITH AN
ASSCD WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL MID ATL. LOOK
FOR A CHC OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA (SOUTH) FRI AFTN INTO SAT BEFORE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE RGN ON SAT. DRYING OUT OVER
THE WKND AHEAD OF ANOTHER IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
RGN ON SUN AND EFFECTING THE MID ATL RGN TUE-WED OF NEXT WK. AS
FAR AS TEMPS...NEAR NRML MAXS FOR THE YR...AND NEAR/ABV NORMAL
READINGS FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUSTY SSW FLOW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT. EXPECT
HIGHEST GUSTS ( 30 KT) AT ORF/PHF/ECG...AND MORE LIKE 20-25 FOR
RIC/SBY. CONDITIONS GNLY WILL BE VFR THROUGH 12-13Z...WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR (OR LOW END MVFR) EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 13Z THROUGH 17Z WITH
THE SHWRS/SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT BULK OF
PRECIPITATION AND LWR CIGS/VSBYS TO END AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS BECMG W
AND REMAINING GUSTY 20-25 KTS. VFR OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO WNW AND
CONTG TO GUST TO ARND 20 KTS.

TUE THROUGH THU...GNLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY TUE/WED (GUSTS 20-25 KT) FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISING SMALL CRAFT ADVSY ALL ZONES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. EXPECT SSW
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HRS AS LOW LVL JET OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. HAVE DECIDED TO REFRAIN
FROM ANY GALE WARNING HEADLINES FOR NOW DUE TO COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES/STABILITY IN LOW LVLS. BELIEVE ANY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED (ASSOCIATED W/
SHWRS/TSTMS)..AND THIS CAN BE HANDLED W/ SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS IF
NECESSARY. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KTS FOR ALL AREAS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...WITH A FEW HRS OF SUSTAINED WINDS
CLOSE TO 30 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL WTRS
FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT SOUTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BCH LGT). AS FOR
SEAS...THEY ARE STILL RATHER LOW 3-4 FT AT MOST...BUT WILL BUILD
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN...TO 6-8 FT NORTH AND 5-7 FT
SOUTH.

MAY SEE A 3 TO 5 HR WINDOW OF LIGHTER WINDS LATE THIS AFTN (15 KTS)
BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL NOT GET
SPECIFIC AT THIS PT SINCE WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS
DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BEYOND THIS...EXPECT A
GENERAL 20 KTS OR SO TUE/TUE NGT. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE HEADLINES
OVER SOUTHERN CSTL WATERS ON TUE IF SEAS DROP OFF WITH OFFSHORE WIND
DIRECTION BUT WILL STAY WITH 4-5 FT FOR NOW AND KEEP HEADLINES UP
THROUGH TUE AFTN ALL ZONES.

WINDS GRADUALLY BACK MORE TO THE SSW LATER WED/WED NGT AND SPEEDS
DECREASE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
729 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-071130-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
729 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-049-060>062-065>069-079-071130-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-BRUNSWICK-
729 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE LINE MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ063-064-070>078-080>100-071130-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-
RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
729 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY
EAST OF I-95.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HURLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1003 AM EDT MON APR 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HAIL             MATHEWS                 37.43N 76.32W
04/06/2009  M0.88 INCH       MATHEWS            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WSAMMLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

MDZ023>025-VAZ099-100-061515-
ACCOMACK VA-INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-NORTHAMPTON
VA-SOMERSET MD-
1011 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE...AND INTO THE VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE...

AT 1008 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES WEST OF SNUG HARBOR TO 40 MILES
WEST OF CAPE CHARLES...OR FROM 6 MILES WEST OF SNUG HARBOR TO
WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR OCEAN CITY AROUND 1015 AM EDT... CHINCOTEAGUE AROUND 1025 AM
EDT...ASSATEAGUE ISLAND AROUND 1030 AM EDT...AND CAPE CHARLES AROUND
1050 AM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.

WRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1044 AM EDT MON APR 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 AM     HAIL             POCOMOKE CITY           38.07N 75.56W
04/06/2009  E1.75 INCH       WORCESTER          MD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

WSAMMLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1057 AM EDT MON APR 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     HAIL             1 E SAINT JOHN          36.31N 77.07W
04/06/2009  E0.88 INCH       HERTFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL HAIL BEGINNING TO COVER GROUND

&&

RCURRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1117 AM EDT MON APR 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     HAIL             2 W GATESVILLE          36.41N 76.79W
04/06/2009  E0.88 INCH       GATES              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.2 WEST OF GATESVILLE ON RTE 137

&&

RCURRY

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