Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND EASTERN OHIO. ALOFT...WHILE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON
BAY...A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS. THE RESULT LEADING TO CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT.

CONTINUE TO FAVOR NAM/SREF BLEND OVER THE GFS FOR TODAY...AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. FRONT
LIKELY PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE DAWN...PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL VA ZONES AFTER SR THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. WL LKLY SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE MID/LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ZONES. LOCAL WRF/NAM/SREF ALL SHOWING ISOLATED SHRAS FIRING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS 18-19Z...SLOWLY RIDING
SE AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. MLCAPE
VALUES OF 15-2K J/KG (WITH LTL/NO CAPPING INVERSION)...0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT AND MIDLVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 4-6
DEG C/KM AGAIN ALL LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION...AND SOME
MULTI- CELL LINES WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET. HIGHEST CVG OF SHRAS LOOKS TO BE OVER THE PENINSULA AND
SOUTHSIDE VA...COINCIDENT WITH BEST LIFT/SHEAR VALUES. WL ORIENT
SCT T WORDING LATE THIS AFTN OVER SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA...WITH ISO WORDING NORTH OF METRO RIC (AND DRY FOR NOW OVER
MORE STABLE MD ZONES. AGAIN SIDED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN UPR 80S/NR 90.

FRONT VERY SLOWLY PUSHES TO SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO ERY MON...AND
HV ALLOWED FOR SLGT SHRA CHC OVERNIGHT AS THIS HAPPENS. SUSPICIOUS
OF GFS QPF FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES UPSTREAM...AND AM INCLINED TO AGAIN SIDE
WITH DRIER NAM/SREF SOLN HERE. STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER ENVELOPE OF
MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN SIGNIFICANT SKY CVR OVER SOUTHERN ZNS. WL LKLY
SEE A FEW STRAY LOWS IN THE UPR 50S ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN
SHORE...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS MONDAY IN
THE 60S NORTH...TO NR 70 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS BOTH SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT LATER MON. KEPT CWA DRY MONDAY MORNING WITH MODELS
SHOWING FRONT MAKING IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. WL HOLD ON TO SLGT CHC TSTMS SOUTHERN HALF FOR THE
AFTN...AND ANTICIPATE POPS INCREASING QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
ERY TUE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. WL KEEP 20% POPS FAR
SRN VA/NC TUE AFTN. HIGHS BOTH DAYS AGAIN MAINLY IN MID/UPR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY FLAT WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AT MID LVLS OVER THE LOWER
48 LEADING TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO DVLP OVER THE ERN US. CUT OFF
LOW NEAR THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO STALL OUT ALLOWING FOR A
FEW DISTURBANCES AND COOLER AIR TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW INTO THE
GRT LKS/NEW ENGLAND RGNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHRTWV AND ASSCD COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE PAC NW WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND MEET UP AND
MERGE INTO THE UPR LVL LOW WED/THU.

MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHRTWVS WILL EJECT ESE ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...TO THE TN VLY RGN AND THE
CAROLINAS LATE WK AND INTO THE WKND.

FOR THE MOST PART OF THE PERIOD OUR CWA WILL BE BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS
IN A WSTRLY FLOW ALOFT (COLD AIR NORTH/BEST RAIN CHCS FURTHER
SOUTH). GENERALLY THIS PATTERN WOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY LOW CHCS OF RAIN
AND ABV NRML TEMPS FOR OUR RGN. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF PATTERN
WITH THE GFS TRYING TOO HARD TO BRING COOLER AIR FURTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED NEXT WKND. IF AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWVS CAN GIVE
THE STATIONARY FRONT A BIT OF A NORTHWARD PUSH...WE COULD SEE THE
CHCS FOR RAIN IMPROVE OVER THE RGN NEXT WKND (ESP OVER SRN THIRD).
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CHC/SLGHT POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TAFS A BIT MORE TRICKY LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS SHWRS
AND TSTMS TRIGGER ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BNDRY. HV DECIDED TO
BEST DEPICT THIS IN THE TAFS BY USING A 3-4 HR TEMPO GROUP...FROM
ROUGHLY 19-23 Z FOR NRN TERMINALS...AND FROM 20-24Z FOR SRN ONES.
(WITH KECG POSSIBLY BEING AFFECTED A LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING.)
GENERALLY KEPT ALL TERMINALS AT MFVR IN THESE TEMPO
GROUPS...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER CATEGORIES IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER
SHWRS.

OTHER THAN THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...
GENLY/PREVAILING VFR CONDS NEXT SVRL DAYS. THIS WKNG FNTL BNDRY
WILL SLIDE ACRS THE RGN LTR THIS EVENING...AND THEN REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE...BEFORE RETURNING NWRD AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL DROP S OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY LONG FUSED (SMALL CRAFT) HEADLINES...BUT CERTAINLY
CAN EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND MARINE STATEMENTS WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

WEAK SFC HI PRES MVS OVR THE WTRS LATE TNGT THROUGH
MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN VARYING WND DRCTN...AND AVG SPDS AOB 10 KT.
SSW WNDS BY WED AFTN INTO THU AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...W/ SPDS GRDLY
INCRSG (BUT AT THIS TIME...XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA MOST PLCS).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...SMF
MARINE...SMF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

ANZ630-650-652-MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-061>064-069-072>078-085-099-
131300-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-POWHATAN-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-MIDDLESEX-ACCOMACK-
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN
SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN
NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ631>633-654-656-658-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-065>068-070-071-
079>084-086>098-100-131300-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
PRINCE EDWARD-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-NORTHAMPTON VA-
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...COASTAL
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HURLEY

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