Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
753 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN STALL JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING MCS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL VA INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS COMPLEX
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM
OHIO/INDIANA EARLIER TODAY. REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY NOW ONLY
SHOWING ISLD TO SCT SHRAS/TSRA AT BEST...AND THESE FEW REMAINING
CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY
MOVE INTO DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR. WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS
(15-20%) FOR ALL ZONES THRU MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CROSSING THRU
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO OUR NORTH...AND
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (20-30%) OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF
OUR FA...DRY ELSEWHERE/SOUTH OF THERE.

LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FA AND
WILL CARRY 40-50% POPS FOR THOSE AREAS...TAPERING DOWN TO 20% POPS
SOUTH OF THERE. ATMS WILL BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WITH STRONG SFC
HEATING AND AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. SPC HAS AGAIN INCLUDED ALL
OF OUR ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX ON SATURDAY...PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

MEANWHILE...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...PUMPING
HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
STATES. LOCAL LLVL THICKNESS TOOL AND MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPR 90S FOR INTERIOR AREAS...AND UPR 80S/LWR 90S
RIGHT AT THE COAST. FORTUNATELY...MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT GUIDANCE
DROPS DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON (MOS AND OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO HIGH WITH AFTN DEWPOINTS). AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DURING THE PEAK
OF THE AFTERNOON...JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE OF NJ/NY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON STALLING THIS LOW OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHO THE EXACT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
INLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
RANGING FROM THE LWR 80S AT THE BEACHES TO UPR 80S INLAND...THEN EVEN
COOLER ON MONDAY WITH PERSISTENT N/NW FLOW AROUND THE PESKY
LOW...UPR 70S AT THE COAST TO MID 80S INLAND. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE COOLER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...LWR TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER ACCORD WITH THE MAIN FEATURES NEXT
WEEK COMPARED TO THE EARLIER RUNS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE EVENTUAL CLOSED/STATIONARY LOW OFFSHORE
ON MONDAY...AND GRADUAL DISSIPATION (AND GRADUAL NORTHWARD TRACK)
TUE THROUGH THU. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE/TRENDS...HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES (20% TOPS) OVER FAR ERN VA/NERN NC
AND THE LOWER ERN SHORE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
BUILDING/DEEPENING RIDGE...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES FURTHER WED AND THU. CAN NEVER RULE OUT A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS TIME OF YEAR...
HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL CHANCE (LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE) HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE FCST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
PICK UP AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT AND ON FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...A FEATURE THAT ALSO HAS BEEN HANDLED REASONABLY WELL
(CONSIDERING 6-7 DAYS OUT) PER BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. BASED ON THE
CONTINUITY OF THE MODELS...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN THE FCSTS FOR NEXT FRI.

SLOW MOVING/EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
(UPR TROUGH AXIS E...RIDGE AXIS W OF FCST AREA) WILL MAKE FOR A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT TEMP PATTERN THROUGH WED. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL
MAX TEMPS (85-90 INLAND...80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST)...COOLER NEAR
THE COAST NOT ONLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH
THIS REGION CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

MORE WIDESPREAD 90S RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH EAST DISSOLVES AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BUILD
ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TAF SITES WERE VFR AT ISSUANCE TIME. HOWEVER...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NW OF RIC WILL PASS JUST W OF RIC BETWEEN 00 AND 01Z
AND INCL CB REMARK THERE. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT NO
MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

NO IFR IS IN THE FCST. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEW POINT AT SBY IS TOO
LOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. MVFR VSBY MENTIONED AT SBY RIC AND ECG
FOR NEAR SUNRISE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT. A FEW TS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT BUT CHANCES AT THE TAF SITES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION CB AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER ISSUANCES.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN THRU WED. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MON AND
TUE BUT AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXP TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS HIGH AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW TRACKS E THROUGH PA/NY...IT WILL BRING ANOTHER
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SAT
AFTN/EVNG...THOUGH AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE EXPECTED GRADIENT
COMPONENT AND STRONG OVER WATER STABILITY...ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS
TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KTS WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SRLY FLOW.

AFTER THE FRONT MVS THROUGH...WE COULD SEE LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS
SAT NIGHT (MAINLY WITH WIND GUSTS...AND ESP OVER CHES BAY) AS THE
WINDS TURN NW...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER/
SUSTAINED SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SUN NIGHT/INTO MON...BEHIND SECONDARY
TROUGH...WHEN THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY...GRADIENT COMPONENT
INCREASES W OF THE OFFSHORE LOW...AND THE TEMPS ALOFT OVER THE
WATERS COOL MORE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES FCST WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE CAMBRIDGE MD AREA WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE (AROUND 2 AM EDT)...AND AT LEWISETTA VA (AROUND MIDNIGHT).
HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE OVER-
PREDICTING OBSERVED LEVELS BY ABOUT 0.5 FT. THUS WILL NOT ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...ALTHO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDAL GAGES AND NEW MODEL RUNS FOR ANY
CHANGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JRL
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BKH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
718 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

VAZ048-049-062-069-200015-
FLUVANNA VA-GOOCHLAND VA-LOUISA VA-POWHATAN VA-
718 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH LOUISA COUNTY TOWARD
GOOCHLAND AND HANOVER COUNTIES...

AT 716 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOUISA...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR TABSCOTT AT 725 PM
EDT...CALEDONIA AT 730 PM EDT...HADENSVILLE AT 735 PM EDT...OTHMA AT
745 PM EDT...SANDY HOOK AT 750 PM EDT...IRWIN AT 755 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

SMF