Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
432 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...THEN STALL OVER NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LYING FROM FAR SW VA NORTHEAST TO LWR MD.
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SVR TSTM WATCH BOX
(#325)...BASICALLY AS SOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS (NEAR 90) WERE
REACHED. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (UP TO 8.5 C/KM) AND
MODERATELY STRONG INSTBY (SFC BASED CAPES 2500-3000 J/KG) HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN LIMITED DUE TO THE MEAGER WIND SPEEDS
ALOFT (W 15-20 KTS BTWN 700-500 MB)...HOWEVER THE AVAILABILITY OF
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS (STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SOME 1-2 KFT BELOW FREEZING LEVELS) HAS
RESULTING IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL REPORTS.

TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH THE CONVERGENCE AIDED BY
THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALREADY IN PLACE. PER COORDINATION
WITH WFOS STERLING AND BLACKSBURG VA...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OVER OUR NRN/NW PTNS OF CENTRAL VA THAT BORDER OUR
NEIGHBORING WFOS. THIS IS THE REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONTAL BNDRY WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST
NUMEROUS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY THE NAM WITH LOW-MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
UPWARD OMEGA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LAG THE SFC BNDRY A LITTLE
FARTHER BEHIND (N) COMPARED TO THE NAM...AND THUS IS NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE QPF POTENTIAL ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL-ERN VA. THE NAM HAD OUTPERFORMED THE GFS YDAY
AFTN AND EVENING IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...COVERAGE...AND
DURATION...AND IT APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE AGAIN TODAY
BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD...MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAINS. RATHER
ANOMALOUS (COOL-SEASON LIKE) SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR EARLY JUNE WILL BE
THE CULPRIT...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SE REGION
THU...THEN LIFTS NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY OVER ERN NC AND FAR
SERN VA. PARAMETERS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
(AGAIN) PER THE NAM...AS PWATS CLIMB TO A VERY IMPRESSIVE 2 TO
2.25 AND K INDICES 35-40. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP PORTION OF THE TROPOSPHERE...
WITH STRONG THETA-E/MSTR CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS. INGREDIENTS
ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...THOUGH FOR
NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH...AT LEAST UNTIL
THE SHORT TERM ISSUES (POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING LATE THIS AFTN
THROUGH TONIGHT) ARE FINISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH COMBINATION OF 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD/VRY WRM WX EXPECTED FOR SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT
WITH JUST A SLGT CHC OF A SHRA OR TSRA SUN AFTN/NGT...MAINLY ACRS
EXTRM NRN CNTIES...DUE TO APPROACHING FRNTL BDNRY FM THE N. BETTER
CHCS FOR SHRAS OR TSRAS WILL COME MON NGT THRU WED...AS A PRE-FRNTL
TROF SETS UP ACRS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRNT PUSHING THRU THE
REGION LATE TUE THRU WED.

MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO NR 90 SUN...MON AND
TUE...AND IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S WED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPR 50S TO UPR 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NR 70
MON...TUE AND WED MORNGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL LOCATIONS CURRENTLY VFR BUT ACTIVITY STARTING TO ORGANIZE ON
RADAR ALONG A LINE FROM CHO SW TO CARROLL COUNTY WITH ISLOD CELLS
DVLPNG TO THE E OF THIS LINE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL AT RIC WITH
TEMPO 19-23Z...HAVE CB IN OTHER TAFS. ALL SITES HAVE MVFR POSSIBLE
THIS AFT/EVE AS FRONT MOVES S. FRONT WILL STALL IN VCNTY OF VA/NC
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MVFR CIG/VIS FOR ALL SITES OTHER THAN ECG.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST ARE THUR AND FRIDAY
CAUSING ADDITIONAL PRECIP WITH MFR/IFR XPCTD BOTH DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE S OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHC FOR
SHWRS...MAINLY TOWARD NC.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS
EXTRM ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WILL SLOWLY DROP SSE TNGT INTO
THU...THEN STALL OVR NRN NC LATER THU THRU FRI. LO PRES WILL TRACK
NE ALNG THE FRNT UP THE CST THU NGT THRU FRI NGT. WEAK HI PRES WILL
BLD OVR THE REGION AND OFF THE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. WNDS...WAVES
AND SEAS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE NRN
TWO CSTL ZNS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS CUD REACH 5 FT IN THE NRN TWO
CSTL ZNS...ESPLY FRI/FRI NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-
     068>078-082>086-090.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...TMG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
720 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

VAZ048-049-061>064-069-071-040030-
CAROLINE VA-CUMBERLAND VA-FLUVANNA VA-GOOCHLAND VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO
VA-LOUISA VA-POWHATAN VA-
720 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

AT 719 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18 MILES NORTH OF MINERAL TO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CARTERSVILLE...OR FROM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CULPEPER TO
5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARTERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CARTERSVILLE AROUND 730 PM EDT...
  MINERAL AROUND 735 PM EDT...
  GOOCHLAND AROUND 805 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO
A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

GINGRICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
731 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAPE CHARLES            37.27N 76.01W
06/03/2009                   NORTHAMPTON        VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON PLUM STREET AND ALSO ROBIN RD IN CHERITON
            AREA

&&

CURRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             TABSCOTT                37.86N 78.06W
06/03/2009  E0.88 INCH       GOOCHLAND          VA   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL HAIL SOUTH OF RT. 250 ON RT. 605.

&&

WSAMMLER

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