Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
255 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK...WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STAYS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CNVTN DVLPG ACRS FA AND POINTS S...ESP INVOF CSTL FNT NR THE NC
CST. ADDTNL STMS FIRING UP NR THE CBRZ OVR THE ERN SHR FM ABT OXB
TO MFV. RMNG VRY WRM/HUMID...W/ ADDTNL STMS INTO THE ERY EVE HRS
B4 WANING DURG THE OVRNGT. SVR TSTM WATCH UP IN FA FOR MOST AREAS
IN VA/NC...WL INCLD SVR RISK AND PTNTL VRY HVY RA IN PRODUCTS. LO
TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TYPICAL MD-SUMMERTIME PTRN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PDS...W/ MOD HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT NRLY STNRY OFF THE E CST...BROAD TROUGH W OF MTNS.
CURRENT RIBBON OF HIER MSTR OVR THE RGN SHIFTS E FOR TUE...BETTER
CHCS FOR LESS CNVTV DVLPMNT ON TUE AS COMPARED W/ TDA...WL BE
MNLY CONCERNED FOR PSBL STMS INVOF CSTL BNDRY FM SE VA THROUGH NE
NC. HI TEMPS TUE IN THE L90S MOST PLCS...DWPTS RMNG AOA 70F.

TROUGH W OF MTNS SHARPENS TUE NGT INTO WED...W/ SFC LO DVLPMNT
INVOF TN/OH VLYS. MDLS SUGG THAT A DVLPG/LRG AREA OF PCPN SPRDS
INTO THE RGN FM THE WSW BY LT WED MRNG. THE LO PASSES N OF
FA...INTO SRN NEW ENG WED NGT INTO THU. WL HV HIEST POPS WED FOR
NW 1/2 OF FA (60%)...TAPERING TO CHC CLSR TO THE CST. LLVL FLO
BCMS/INCRSS FM THE SW BY THU LEADING TO LWRG POPS (AND HIER DYTM
TEMPS). LO (NGTM) TEMPS 70 TO 75. HI TEMPS WED IN THE 80S...ARND
90F SE VA/NE NC...THEN 80S TO L90S THU (MID 90S INLAND?).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A W TO SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A DAILY POTENTIAL FOR SCT TS.

THE EURO BRINGS A STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN AND
MON. THIS MAY BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND
MON.

CONFIDENCE IN DAILY DETAILS IS LOW AND DID NOT GET FANCY WITH THE
POPS. MOST OF THEM ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTN
AND EVNG AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 85 TO 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT TO BKN CLDS AT AROUND 025 WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTN. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY AT PHF ORF AND
ECG. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT RIC AND SBY TUE
MRNG AND INCLUDED IN TAFS.

OUTSIDE SCT AFTN/EVNG TS AND PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG...MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED SCA FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS TO EXPIRE EARLIER THIS AFTN...AS
SEAS HAD SUBSIDED TO 3 TO 4 FT. WAVE WATCH IS SHOWING SEAS
INCREASING OVR THESE WATERS ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING...AGAIN
WITH SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND NWRD TO FENWICK ISLAND. INACTED A SMALL CRAFT FOR
TONIGHT..BEGINNING AT 00Z, BASED ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BY LATE TUE MORN TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN VE EXPECTED OVR THE WATERS
WITH WINDS RUNNING AOB 15 KTS. 850/950 MB WINDS WILL BE RUNNING ARND
20-25 KT WITH MODERATE LAPSE RATES. BASED ON GUST CLIMO OVR THE
WATERS DO NOT THINK A SCA FOR SOTHERLY GUSTS TO 20 KT IS WARRANTED
FOR CHES BAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO IN THE IN THE 20 KT
RANGE IS POSSIBLE. MORE PROMINANT THREAT TO MARINERS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TONIGT WILL BE THE SCATTERED SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE HANDLED WITH MWSS AND SMWS.

OTHERWISE...SSW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK....WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SE RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WL LKLY
SEE SOME MODEST BAY CHANNELING EACH DAY THIS WEEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT/BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WORK CONTS ON KAKQ RADAR...RTS UNKNOWN ATTM. ADJACENT RADARS
INCLUDE KDOX...KLWX...KRNK...KRAH...KMHX.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SMF
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
505 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

VAZ091-094-272200-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-YORK VA-
505 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...

AT 504 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NEWPORT NEWS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR OYSTER POINT AT 510 PM EDT...
NEWPORT NEWS WILLIAMSBURG AIRPORT AT 515 PM EDT...TABB AT 520 PM
EDT...NORTHAMPTON AT 525 PM EDT...POQUOSON AT 535 PM EDT...MESSICK AT
540 PM EDT.

EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

WAMSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
514 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE ATLANTIC           37.92N 75.49W
07/27/2009                   ACCOMACK           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR WALLOPS ISLAND...ATLANTIC RD FLOODED...DITCHES
            FILLED...4 AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN

&&

LALEXAND

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