Coastal Flood Statement 4, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS UPR LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RMN
NRLY STNRY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE IMPULSE WILLROTATE AROUND THIS LOW
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR NOT
EXPECTING MORE THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. WITH SOME CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD
TEMPS IN THE 60S TONIGHT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING UPPER LOW OFF THE OCAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER ALL IMPULSES ROTATE MORE OFFSHORE WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLE POPS BUT
A LITTLE MORE THEN THE MOS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW HAS
MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO END ANY THREAT OF PRECIP. FARTHER INLAND
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BY THURSDAY
ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST AND BETTER
DOWNSLOPE AND GOOD DRYING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WENT CLOSE TO
MOS TEMPS AS THESE WERE CLOSE TO OFFICE THICKNESS SCHEME FOR
MAXES. GRADUAL WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING TEMPS BACK
ABOVE 90 BY THURSDAY WHICH CORRESPONDS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. MINS AT
NIGHT STAY IN THE 60S WITH BEST COOLING IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE. A FEW MORE CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE COAST AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE COAST THU NITE AND ERLY FRI. NXT FRNTL BNDRY
APPROACHES FROM THE N FRI AFTRN. COMBO OF THIS BNDRY AND THE HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT SHUD ACT AS A TRIGGER TO PRODUCE SCT AFTRN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. BUMPED UP POPS TO LOW CHC ACROSS MOST OF
FA (KEPT SLGHT CHC ALONG THE COAST). H85 TMPS SPRT READINGS IN THE
L-M90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES 95-100 GIVEN DP TMPS ARND 70.

GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON HOW FAR S & E THIS BNDRY GETS. GFS PUSHES IT
INTO CAROLINAS WITH HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE N SAT WHILE ECMWF
STALLS IT ACROSS MID ATLNTC RGN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
OFFSHORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD A ECMWF SOLN AND KEEP THE BNDRY A WX
PLAYER ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC THRU MON. UPSHOT WILL BE CHC POPS WITH
BNDRY FRI NITE...AND SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS ERN SCTNS SAT. WILL KEEP
SLGHT CHC POPS SUN AND MON GIVEN BNDRY LCTN COMBINED WITH DYTME
HTNG. HIGHS GNRLY ARND 90 (L-M90S SUN). LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED VCSH TO SBY
AS ISOLATED SHRAS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DELMARVA AND MOVING
QUICKLY S. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OVER
THE DELMARVA AND ALONG THE COAST. SHRAS WILL END BY SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TUE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH WED. EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THU THOUGH WITH THE
LOW NOT MOVING...MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP NEAR SBY/ORF WITH AID OF
NE FLOW. WEAK HI PRES TRIES TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA ON THU...WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRNT APPROACHING LATE FRI/EARLY SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
WNDS NOT ALL THE STRNG TDY...DESPITE THE OFFSHORE LOW. WILL DROP
SCA FOR THE CHES BAY / CURRITUCK SND WITH AFTRN PCKGE. SEAS SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE...SO WILL KEEP SCA UP THRU LATE TONITE ACROSS SRN CSTL
WTRS AND TUE ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS.

HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS MARINE AREA THRU FRI. WND FLOW REMAINS NRLY
(AOB 15 KT) THRU WED THEN BECOMES SW BY THU AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. NXT FRNT APPRCHS WTRS FRI NITE/SAT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES CONT TO RUN UP TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COMBINED
WITH MAINLY NORTH WINDS AND SLOWLY WEAKENING EXTRATROPICAL STORM
SURGE SHUD KEEP TIDES DOWN DESPITE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL READINGS.
HIGHEST TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR
MINOR FLOODING NEAR OCEAN CITY AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE. WILL CONT
CSTL FLOOD ADVSRY THRU EVE HRS. LTST DATA KEEPS TIDES BLO 5 FT
ACROSS THE SRN CHES BAY AND ADJACENT CSTL WTRS...SO NO ADVSRY
PLANNED THERE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
312 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

MDZ021>023-NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ048-049-060>094-096-097-231915-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-
PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
312 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ017-102-VAZ095-098-231915-
INLAND CURRITUCK-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
VIRGINIA BEACH-
312 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ024-025-VAZ099-100-231915-
INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
312 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ650-652-654-231915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
312 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ656-658-231915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
312 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>633-231915-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
312 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
822 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

MDZ023>025-VAZ099-230115-
ACCOMACK VA-INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-SOMERSET MD-
822 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE...

AT 820 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FROM CRISFIELD TO 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CHINCOTEAGUE...OR FROM CRISFIELD TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ASSATEAGUE ISLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR CRISFIELD AROUND 835 PM EDT AND CHINCOTEAGUE AROUND 850
PM EDT.

EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON
RAODWAYS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

44

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