Winter Storm Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK47 PAJK 072300
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
200 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

AKZ029-080700-
/X.EXA.PAJK.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090208T0900Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
200 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT NEAR HYDER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING NEAR HYDER...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

SNOW FROM A FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE HYDER AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE 10 TO 15 INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING.

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ019-080700-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090208T0900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
200 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT. 

SNOW FROM A FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE 8 TO 12 INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. HIGHEST
AMOUNT IN DOWNTOWN HAINES.

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK47 PAJK 080651
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
951 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

AKZ019-080800-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090208T0900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
951 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

SNOW IS TAPERING OFF IN THE HAINES AREA LATE THIS EVENING. SNOW TOTALS
SO FAR AROUND HAINES WERE IN THE 15 TO 18 INCH RANGE...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NW. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW BEFORE IT
END LATER TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ029-080900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090208T0900Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
951 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT. 

SNOW FROM A FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE HYDER AREA WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE IN THE 14 TO 20 INCH RANGE.

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER 
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK47 PAJK 080844
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1144 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009


AKZ029-080945-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090208T0900Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
1144 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
504 AM AKST SAT FEB 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE THIS MORNING REVEALS A WELL DEFINED
BAROCLINIC LEAF IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITHIN THE DEEPENING GALE
FORCE LOW. AS THIS 983 MB SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE 850 MB
LLJ BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR ADVY TO
CONTINUE FROM AKZ025 SOUTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE 60 KNOT
850MB LLJ SLOWLY ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS MORNING REMAINS ON
A LINE FROM PAGY TO PAHN AND PAYA. EXPECT THESE AREAS TO CONTINUE
TO SEE SNOWFALL THIS MORNING HOWEVER, THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND
BETTER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SO ALLOWED THE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE. NEAR PAYA A WEAK
DEFORMATION BAND IS FORMING ATTM SO INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATION
TODAY TO NEAR 4 INCHES. AS THE SURFACE LOW ADVECTS INTO THE YUKON
THIS AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD SHEAR
APART LEAVING PAYA WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT.
PREFERRED THE 00Z/06Z GFS FOR TODAYS PACKAGE AS IT INITIALIZED
THE BAROCLINIC LEAF THE BEST OF THE MODELS AND ITS TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND ADVECTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WAS THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS AVERAGE WITH THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE
TODAY AS THE 00Z AND 06Z MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE INITIALIZING
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE WIND FIELD.

 FOR TODAY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ICY
STRAIT SOUTHWARD AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. EXTENDED
THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ025 AS UP TO ANOTHER INCH TO 1.5 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP WILL FALL ON THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
AND THIS WILL CAUSE CONTINUED PONDING ON ROADWAYS. WIND ADVY
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH GALES IN
ASSOCIATED MARINE WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE 850 MB LLJ
ADVECTS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE BEST
FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE KEPT PAYA...PAHN AND PAGY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BELOW ADVY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON NEAR PAGY/PAHN AS THIS COULD LEAD TO
GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECT THE GALE FORCE LOW NOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF TO ADVECT INTO THE YUKON BY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR TO MIX INTO
PAGY AND PAHN CAUSING THE SNOW LEVEL TO RISE ABOVE 1000 FEET.

 FOR TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW AND WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO WESTERN CANADA ALLOWING FOR A CONVECTIVE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE INTO TONIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING,
HOWEVER, WITH STRONG CAA FROM 500 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP TO BE SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY
TONIGHT...BUT ICE PELLETS WILL MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
STRONGER SHOWERS. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH A WEAK RESIDUAL LOW FORMING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF.

.LONG TERM...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A RESIDUAL LOW WILL SIT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FADING AWAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO FALL
AS SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND A MIX TO STRAIGHT
RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM SLIDES BY WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT THE SOUTHERN ZONES MIGHT STILL SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. OTHER WISE THE NEXT
STORM OF WORRY WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF STARTS AFFECTING THE
AREA. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SLIP SOUTH BY FRIDAY.

IN THE WIND DEPARTMENT...THINGS WILL ALSO STAY RELATIVELY QUIET
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS THAT SOUTHERN SYSTEM GOES BY.

MODELS ARE IN RATHER FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THEY
START DISAGREEING ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. MODEL OF CHOICE
WAS THE GFS EARLY ON AND THE EC LATER IN THE PERIOD. BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL BUT THOUGHT GFS HAD A BETTER HANDLE EARLY
ON. FELT THE BEST FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND CAME FROM A BLEND OF
THE INHERITED GRIDS...WHICH WERE TAKEN STRAIGHT FROM AN EARLIER
RUN OF THE GFS...THE CURRENT GFS AND THE CURRENT EC. AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY TRANSITIONED TO A BLEND OF INHERITED...WHICH WERE TAKEN
FROM THE CURRENT HPC GRIDS...AND THE CURRENT EC.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ026-027.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ023-025.
         FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-033>035-042-043-051-052.
HYDRO...FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 545 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025

PSS/EAL