Wind Advisory 96, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 080044
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
344 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

AKZ018-080800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-091208T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
344 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVER NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 080401
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
701 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009


AKZ018-080515-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0096.000000T0000Z-091208T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
701 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE WEAKENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT PRODUCE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. LOCALLY BREEZY LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
102 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER STRONG RIDGE DOMINATES THE
WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE. MOST LOCATIONS AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PAGS WHICH IS AT MVFR FOR CIGS. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TODAY AS THE 1056 MB HIGH IN THE YUKON HAS MOVED
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL BC. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER THE
RIDGE BRINGING A CIRRUS SHIELD OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE. MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS SHOULD MODERATE LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH THERMAL TRAPPING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
HOWEVER SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL REMAIN SMALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER A WEAK INVERSION PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE INNER CHANNELS AND LOCATIONS THAT
REMAIN CLOUD FREE TONIGHT.

 MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
NAM12 AGAIN HANDLING WHAT REMAINS OF GAP FLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PANHANDLE AND THE 1056 MB HIGH IN BC THE
BEST. POPS REMAIN NIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE YUKON AND INTO BC THIS EVENING
WILL INCREASE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THROUGH THAT TIME EXPECTING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST. AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST A POLAR VORTEX WILL TRACK
ACROSS CANADA INTO THE AK INTERIOR BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL
SOME QUESTION ON ITS FINAL LOCATION. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE DOWN
FROM YUKON OVER BC WITH AN INCREASE EAST WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT.
EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE N ZONES TO DIMINISHING
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SMCR WINDS OVER N AND S LYNN CANALS.
INTERIOR PASSES WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...STARTING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND MOVING NORTH. PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH A MIX OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT AMOUNTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. STILL UNCERTAIN ARE TEMPERATURES ARE MODES
ARE IN FAIR DISAGREEMENT. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING LARGE VARIATIONS
WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING A LARGE DIFFERENCE. LIMITED ANY
TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

MODELS STARTED OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. STARTED WITH A BLEND OF
NAM12 AS IT GAVE A BIT MORE DETAIL IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TO
BLEND WITH THE SHORT TERM. GFS SOLUTION NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE
EC ON THE POLAR LOW TRACK MOVING INTO THE AK INTERIOR. ITS FINAL
LOCATION COMPARED TO THE MORE SOUTHERN EC SEEMED A BIT MORE
REALISTIC. USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND GFS 12Z BLEND WITH
INHERITED GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WIND AND POPS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONFIDENCE STILL LOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051-052.

&&

CCC/PRB